Despite peace talks falling apart this weekend, cryptocurrency punters don't see high chances of the two-week U.S.–Iran ceasefire ending just yet.

Will The Ceasefire Extend?

Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket assigned a 42% possibility that the temporary ceasefire would end on April 21, exactly 14 days after President Donald Trump announced it. The odds have increased by six percentage points over the week.

The likelihood of the ceasefire ending by April 18, before the full two-week duration, was estimated at 30%.

More than $2 million has been wagered on the outcome, and the market will resolve to “Yes” if Trump, the federal government, or the U.S. military officially announces that the ceasefire is no longer in effect.

Notably, the odds of the military operation in Iran concluding by the end of this month dropped to 24%, down from 12% the previous day.

A Fragile Ceasefire?

These developments come after Trump vowed to block ship traffic tied to Iran in and out of the Strait of Hormuz after the Islamabad peace talks over the weekend without an agreement. He added that the Navy has been directed to intercept ships in international waters that have paid what he called an illegal toll to Iran.

Earlier, Vice President JD Vance, who led the high-level peace talks from the U.S. side, said negotiations broke down over Iran’s unwillingness to commit to abandoning nuclear weapons development.

On the other hand, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused Washington of shifting demands at the last minute, adding, “Goodwill begets goodwill. Enmity begets enmity.”

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