Last week was the worst for crude oil since the first COVID lockdowns shook the world in March 2020.

WTI fell 13.42% in five sessions as ceasefire hopes briefly convinced traders that the U.S.-Iran conflict was winding down and the Strait of Hormuz would reopen.

It was the kind of move that, in the moment, looked like the market pricing in resolution.

It was also, if history is any guide, precisely the kind of move that precedes the largest recoveries in crude’s modern trading record.

The ceasefire trade lasted five days. The blockade trade may last months.

The Blockade That Erased the Ceasefire Trade

Sunday evening changed everything.

President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would begin blockading all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, effective April 13 at 10 a.m. ET.

The announcement followed the collapse of US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad, where Tehran refused to relinquish its nuclear enrichment program — Washington’s core demand.

WTI crude – as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) – surged 8.3% to $104.58 per barrel at Monday’s open, crossing back above $100 for the first time since Tuesday.

Brent crude – tracked by the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSE:BNO) – rose 6.9% to $101.82. 

What History Actually Says About 13% Weekly Oil Crashes

A TradingView Event Study scanning WTI weekly performance data back to 1986 identifies every instance in which crude posted a single-week decline exceeding 13% — the rate-of-change threshold that filters for genuine structural shocks rather than routine volatility.

The screen returns 22 episodes over 40 years.

The dates cluster around the most recognizable stress events in oil market history: the 1986 Saudi price war, the Gulf War of 1990–91, the 1998 Asia crisis, the 2001 post-9/11 repricing, the 2008 financial collapse, the 2011 Arab Spring counter-shock, the 2014–16 shale oversupply bear market, the 2020 COVID demand destruction, and now April 2026.

The 12-month win rate of 77.3% means that in roughly three out of four prior episodes, crude oil was higher one year after the crash than at the moment of maximum weekly decline.

The average gain of 48.4% is not driven by a single outlier. The median — which strips out the most extreme recoveries — still registers 36.2%. 

At the one-month window, the data is more cautious: the average gain is only 1.6%, reflecting a market that frequently retests lows before recovering. Patience, not immediacy, is what the data rewards.

If history is any guide and average forward returns hold, crude could reach around $150 within the next 12 months.

The Full Record: Every Episode Since 1986

The table below presents the complete record with forward returns at each measured horizon.

DateOil Weekly
Drop %		Forward returns:
1M (%)		Forward returns: 3M (%)Forward returns: 6M (%)Forward returns: 12M (%)
1986-01-19−13.72−32.0−31.3−44.1−3.9
1986-02-16−15.49+3.0+15.2+14.9+22.7
1986-03-23−17.93+28.8+4.8+81.8+63.5
1987-12-13−15.89+10.5+5.7+4.0+7.9
1990-10-14−15.82−4.5−36.1−37.4−30.8
1991-01-13−30.41−5.7+10.2+16.8+0.1
1991-02-17−14.22+12.2+18.3+21.8+4.3
1996-04-14−13.38+1.3−1.2+18.2−5.0
1998-06-07−16.46+13.6+24.1−10.6+44.3
1999-10-03−15.00+19.9+34.7+23.6+68.5
2001-11-11−17.33+6.8+14.8+48.1+45.7
2003-03-16−23.94−2.4+8.8+4.7+32.8
2004-11-28−13.96+6.8+28.0+29.4+39.6
2008-10-05−17.23−26.6−45.2−32.8+1.7
2008-11-30−25.02+13.6+11.5+67.0+84.9
2011-05-01−14.70+2.2−12.1+1.9−1.1
2014-11-23−13.54−20.4−25.0−8.8−39.6
2020-02-23−16.15−36.7−20.7−4.0+47.7
2020-03-08−23.13−42.4+25.5+30.2+93.6
2020-03-15−28.68−25.1+70.1+77.9+169.4
2020-04-05−19.69+29.7+79.1+80.7+177.6
2020-04-12−19.73+81.9+123.0+118.1+240.1
2026-04-11 ★−13.42
AVERAGE (%)1.5713.7320.4348.37
MEDIAN (%)2.610.8817.4536.19
WIN RATE (%)59.0968.1872.7377.27

Photo: ImageFlow / Shutterstock