The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday, surging 1.02% to close at 6,886.24, even as the U.S. began a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, announced by President Donald Trump following failed peace talks in Islamabad with Iran.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is bullish heading into Tuesday. The April 14 contract shows 67% of traders betting “Up,” following $275,876 in traded volume on the April 13 outcome.
Why That Number Matters
While Trump's blockade announcement pushed the market down in early trade on Monday, the President later claimed Iran was willing to make a deal, pushing markets up.
After surging over $100, oil prices declined to $95.70 on Tuesday, recording a 3.41% decline.
According to AAA, the average gas price in the U.S. is $4.118 per gallon, compared to $3.630 per gallon a month ago.
The Bull Case
The markets had declined after the earlier peace talks failed, with Iran blaming Israel for violating the ceasefire with attacks on Lebanon.
Pakistan has reportedly offered to host the second round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, ahead of the two-week ceasefire expiration.
How The Previous Bet Played Out
The S&P 500 opened Monday at 6,806.47, well below the prior close of 6,816.89, as markets geared up for a naval blockade from the U.S. The April 13 Polymarket bet resolved “Down,” with traders correctly anticipating a lower open.
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