Streaming giant Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) could show the strength of subscriber growth and advertising revenue when the company reports first-quarter financial results Thursday after market close.

Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the report and the key items to watch.

Netflix Q1 Analyst Estimates

Analysts expect Netflix to report first-quarter revenue of $12.17 billion, up from $10.54 billion in last year's first quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in nine of the last 10 quarters, including the most recently reported fourth quarter.

Analysts expect Netflix to report first-quarter earnings of 76 cents per share, up from 66 cents per share year-over-year.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in eight of the last 10 quarters, including the most recently reported fourth quarter.

Netflix posted a rare double miss in last year's fiscal third quarter, ending long streaks for both revenue and earnings per share.

What Netflix Experts Are Saying

After losing out on the high-cost acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD), KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson sees more upside for Netflix stock.

The analyst maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $108 to $115.

"While we suspect Netflix may opt to reinvest some of the initial savings, we believe this will likely translate toward higher growth and >$4/share in 2027 EPS," Patterson said.

The analyst said there is a "cleaner story" for Netflix stock after the acquisition didn't work out.

Patterson said consensus estimates from analysts may not be factoring in the $2.8 billion termination fee to Netflix from Warner Bros. Discovery.  

The analyst said Netflix is also likely to resume share buybacks after walking away from the acquisition. A price increase recently announced may also not be factored into analyst consensus estimates, Patterson said.

Patterson said Netflix may be a second-half story for fiscal 2026.

Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods said Netflix looks to emerge from the cloud left over for shareholders during the Warner Bros. acquisition process.

"Now they can focus on growing without this partnership," Woods said in a weekly newsletter.

The market expert said the two key metrics to watch on Thursday are subscriber growth and the continued push into live sports.

"Watch for commentary around the impact of marquee events like NFL games and other live programming. Will they announce a deal that more NFL games are on the horizon?"

Woods said the technicals on Netflix stock have "finally started to turn around as well."

"It may take some truly inspiring results to break shares above the $107 level, but if it can then look for shares to continue upward to the $123 level over the coming months."

Here are other recent analyst ratings on Netflix stock and their price targets:

  • Guggenheim: Reiterated Buy rating, with $130 price target
  • Wedbush: Maintained Outperform rating, raised price target from $115 to $118
  • Rosenblatt: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $95 to $96
  • Goldman Sachs: Upgraded from Neutral to Buy rating, raised price target from $100 to $120

Key Items to Watch in Q1 Results

The recently announced price increase will likely be a key item discussed on Thursday, as will be company management commentary on what the last price increase meant for customers leaving and how many traded down to the ad-supported plan.

Netflix saw higher revenue in the fourth quarter thanks to higher pricing, membership growth and increased advertising revenue. The streamer could be setting itself up for future quarters that are similar.

Subscriber figures are no longer broken out, but Netflix has shared several milestones. The question is what milestones will be shared and how much information the company will give in future reports.  

Netflix has put an emphasis on growing its advertising revenue and that will likely be a key focus on Thursday's earnings call.

With live sports a key part of advertising growth, the company is likely to get analyst questions on the recent reports that Netflix is eyeing more than two NFL games per season.

Netflix previously guided for full-year revenue in a range of $50.70 billion to $51.70 billion, which could be reiterated or adjusted based on the first quarter.

Netflix Stock Price Action

Netflix stock was up 2.99% to $106.24 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $75.01 to $134.12. Netflix stock is up 16.3% year-to-date in 2026.

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