Something is off with the math in Washington.

On Wednesday morning, President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social that the Strait of Hormuz is now “permanently” open — crediting US military superiority and a new understanding with China under which Beijing agreed not to ship weapons to Iran. He added that President Xi Jinping would give him “a big, fat hug” during an upcoming visit.

The day before, in an interview with Fox Business, Trump indicated the oil market had held up better than feared. With WTI – tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) – near $93 a barrel, far below the $200 some analysts warned was possible at the outset of the conflict, Trump said the price was manageable — and forecast much lower gas prices well ahead of the November midterm elections.

“If you told me at only $92 a barrel I would’ve been very surprised. And you know what, it is going to come dropping down,” he said.

But vessel-tracking data tells a different story — and the two narratives cannot both be true at the same time.

Hormuz Traffic Flow Still 10% Of Pre-War Levels

According to Kpler trade risk analyst Ana Subasic, commercial crossings through the strait fell to six on April 13 — down from 14 the session prior, and against a pre-conflict average closer to 60 per day. 

Activity was split evenly across shadow, sanctioned and mainstream fleet segments, with most voyages running west-to-east.

The US blockade of Iranian ports, which took effect Monday, pushed many shipowners into a wait-and-see posture. Uncertainty around enforcement, insurance and counterparty exposure continues to weigh on transit decisions, according to Subasic, and no meaningful normalization in traffic has emerged.

The operating environment remains “extremely high risk,” she said.

Goldman Sachs commodity strategists Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven put average daily Hormuz flows at 2.1 million barrels — roughly 10% of normal on a four-day moving average basis

But the team flagged that the blockade creates additional downside risk for the remaining Hormuz flows, as Iran-associated tankers have accounted for most of the recent movement.

According to Goldman, the U.S. military reported six vessels U-turning back to Iranian ports in the first 24 hours of the blockade.

What Prediction Markets Are Actually Watching: Peace Deal and Nuclear Enrichment

Odds on whether Hormuz traffic fully normalizes by April 30 are currently at 26%, the most direct market verdict on Trump’s “permanently open” claim. Three-quarters of prediction market capital is betting it does not happen this month.

 Traders are not simply betting on whether a ceasefire holds. They are betting on whether the chain of steps required to reopen a strait — military stand-down, blockade removal, insurer re-certification, shipowner willingness to re-enter a recently mined and bombed waterway — can all clear anytime soon.

The ceasefire and the open strait are not the same thing. Washington appears to be conflating them.

The deeper question is also whether a durable political settlement follows. 

A ceasefire without Iran’s willingness to end uranium enrichment risks to leave the structural supply risk intact — and the Strait of Hormuz exactly where the data shows it today.

A temporary ceasefire without a nuclear agreement leaves the structural supply risk fully intact, and the Strait of Hormuz exactly where the data shows it today.

A permanent peace deal by April 30 is trading at 33 cents — roughly one-in-three odds. The enrichment market, which is the harder nuclear ask, sits at 54% probability by June 30.

Neither is a confident “yes.” Both reflect a market that sees resolution as likely over months, not weeks.

The gap between a ceasefire and a peace deal is where the oil risk lives.

Shipowners don’t re-enter the Strait of Hormuz because a social media post says it’s open. They re-enter when war risk insurance premiums normalize, when mine-clearance is verified, and when the legal and logistical chain that governs a $20 trillion annual oil market has had time to reset.

The president says it’s permanently open.

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