Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has outperformed gold since the start of the Iran war but remains down against gold over the past year.

Despite this divergence, some analysts argue the steep correction may represent a long-term buying opportunity.

Historic Correction Against Gold

In an Apr. 14 post on X, trader Michael van de Poppe said Bitcoin's recent drawdown relative to gold is among the most severe on record, estimating a decline of roughly 66% in a key valuation metric known as sigma deviation.

He noted that similar extremes have previously appeared near major cycle lows in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022, all of which were followed by strong multi-month and multi-year recoveries.

Historically, these capitulation phases have led to gains ranging from 100% to 800% over the following 12–24 months, according to his analysis.

‘Buy the Dip’ Scenario

Van de Poppe argues current conditions resemble a late-stage bear market bottom, not a new structural downtrend. He points to weak altcoin performance and deeply oversold signals as additional evidence of exhaustion in the market.

His short-term outlook suggests a potential rebound toward $87,500–$90,000 within three months, while longer-term projections extend to $115,000–$125,000, assuming historical cycle patterns repeat. He thus advises to "buy the dip."

He also added that a drop toward $30,000 appears unlikely, as downside sigma metrics have already reached historically extreme levels.

While a retest of recent lows is still possible, further downside is expected to be limited, making current levels a favorable accumulation zone based on past 12-month post-bottom returns.

Image: Shutterstock