Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) ETFs recorded $276 million in net inflows last week, yet prominent crypto trader Ansem warns the $300 billion asset could target $1,300 if the downtrend continues.

The Bear Case Building

Ansem laid out a multi-pronged case against Ethereum. Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) dominated retail activity this cycle, Hyperliquid (CRYPTO: HYPE) dominated perps activity, and rollups still lack significant  traction. 

Moreover, Vitalik Buterin publicly abandoned the general usage rollup thesis.

Ethereum’s main value proposition has been safety and security of DeFi and institutional interest. 

However, the current Aave (CRYPTO: AAVE) situation marks that value proposition and has the possibility to continue weakening confidence.

“ETH in 2026 is in worse spot than it was in 2023, amplified by AI doing extremely well and tech stocks being much more favorable investments with real revenues, emerging narratives, and increasing momentum,” Ansem said.

The Overhang Problem

ETH is a $300 billion asset with overhang from institutional sellers and complacent ETH holders sitting idle in DeFi protocols. 

Technically, it’s in a sustained downtrend after failing to break through multi-year resistance levels.

At current range highs of a multi-month bearish consolidation range, if the downtrend continues, 

Ansem targets lows of 2025 around $1,300 and then lows of the bear market around 2022.

Tight invalidation sits at $2,377 assuming problems worsen. Loose invalidation sits around $2,700-$2,800 assuming other risk assets continue doing well and drag it up.

The ETF Inflows

ETH ETFs recorded $276 million in net inflows last week, led by Fidelity’s FETH (BATS:FETH) at $126 million. That marks three straight weeks of positive institutional flows.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs added $996 million in the same week with BlackRock’s IBIT (NASDAQ:IBIT) leading at $906 million. Flows and price action are reinforcing each other as macro pressure eases.

Ethereum 100 EMA Test

After bottoming at $1,750 in February, ETH has been building a rising channel. Today’s candle is pushing toward the upper boundary near $2,350-$2,400.

The 20 EMA at $2,253 and 50 EMA at $2,211 are both below price and rising—clean bullish EMA structure for the first time since October.

The 100 EMA at $2,354 is the immediate wall. ETH tagged it last week and pulled back—today it’s testing it again. The SAR at $2,462 is the next target, followed by the 200 EMA at $2,645.

Key support sits at $2,253 (20 EMA), then $2,211 (50 EMA). Resistance clusters at $2,354 (100 EMA), then $2,462 (SAR), then $2,645 (200 EMA).

A daily close above $2,380 would be significant.

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