Iran on Monday said that it will not negotiate under the "shadow of threats" and that "Iranians do not submit to force." This was followed by Trump threatening Iran with "lots of bombs."

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be affected, with shipping being restricted. Amid this, the prediction market is betting on when Iran will agree to unrestricted shipping through the Strait. Traffic through the strait has slowed significantly since the war began.  

Here's What Prediction Market Is Saying

Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin is currently betting on a contract "Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?"

Over $227,000 has been bet on the contract so far.

Amid the war of words between the two sides, the prediction market is not very confident that shipping will return to normal. Bettors have placed a 23% probability on Iran agreeing to unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in April, down by 20%.

Oil Declines

Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, citing the continued U.S. blockade of Iranian ports as a violation of the ceasefire.

WTI crude oil for May fell 1.72% to $88.07 per barrel, while the June contract declined to $86.38 per barrel.

Brent crude declined 0.75% to $94.76 per barrel.

Iran-US Peace Deal

Another contract on Polymarket was betting on when the U.S. and Iran would agree to a permanent peace deal.

The prediction market is not very confident about a deal happening anytime soon. The April 22 option has only 18% probability according to bettors. The probability increases to 39% for April 30 and is the highest at 71% on June 30.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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