Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has rallied into a key bear market resistance zone, but analyst Benjamin Cowen says the move does not yet confirm a rejection or a breakout.

Resistance Zone In Focus

Cowen noted that Bitcoin is testing a major resistance band while also interacting closely with the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).

He said price briefly touched this level before slipping slightly below it, creating uncertainty over whether the move represents a failed breakout or a temporary wick.

He added that similar price behavior in past cycles, particularly in 2023 and 2024, often preceded either short-lived rejections or eventual breakouts, making the current setup inconclusive in the short term.

Pointing to a recent structure, Cowen noted that a February low followed by a higher April low.

Historically, such formations can support short-term strength for several weeks, though momentum often fades into late April or May depending on broader market conditions.

Overall Bearish Outlook

Cowen described two main outcomes:

  • Breakout scenario: If Bitcoin moves above the resistance band, upside will likely still face limits near the 200-day moving average, reducing the probability of a sustained bull continuation.
  • Rejection scenario: If price is rejected, Bitcoin may continue range-bound trading between resistance and support, with potential retests of prior lows later in the year.

Overall, Cowen maintains a cautious outlook, framing the current move as a countertrend rally rather than the start of a new bull phase.

He also noted that traditional asset classes, including equities, energy, and metals, have outperformed Bitcoin this year, reinforcing the view that crypto remains in a weaker relative cycle phase compared with broader markets.

Image: Shutterstock