President Donald Trump told CNBC Tuesday he doesn’t want United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) and American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) to merge. “American is doing fine, and United is doing very well. I don’t like having them merge,” Trump said.

CEO Scott Kirby had pitched the combination to the Trump administration in February. American called itself “not interested” some days later.

UAL reports Q1 earnings after today’s close with a call tomorrow morning.

The Kalshi contract pricing Kirby’s word choices reads defensively.

Six of the top nine priced outcomes are problems: Newark, Middle East, Weather, Oil, ATC and Union. Starlink at 87% is the only growth word traders treat as near-certain.

What The Top Of The Board Says

“Newark” is at 89%. The airport has operated under a FAA-imposed 72-operations-per-hour cap through October 2026 due to Philadelphia TRACON understaffing.

Kirby has personalized the issue more than any airline CEO, publicly pressing the DOT for funding.

“Middle East” at 79% and “Oil” at 70% price the same problem. United’s fuel book is unhedged, translating the Iran war into the $400 million cost Kirby flagged last month. Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:DAL) hedges, and beat Q1 estimates on April 8.

“Union” at 66% may turn positive. United reached a tentative agreement with the Association of Flight Attendants on March 26. If Kirby downplays the deal, it may be less favorable than early reports suggested.

“Starlink” at 87%. United has equipped more than 300 regional aircraft and plans 500 mainline by year-end. Delta’s Amazon Kuiper rollout doesn’t begin until 2028.

Some Surprising Numbers

“American Airlines” at 34% could be mispriced. Trump’s comments make the question of acquisitions likely to come up, and Kirby was president of American before joining United in 2016.

JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ:JBLU) at 50%. CNBC reported Kirby has been weighing a JetBlue deal since last fall.

“Relax Row” at 39%. This is United’s just-unveiled lie-flat economy product, slated for 2027 on 787s and 777s. It anchors the airline’s premium-for-everybody strategy.

“World Cup” at 35%. The tournament kicks off in June across the US, Canada and Mexico. Airlines typically flag such tailwinds on Q1 calls.

UAL is trading above $100 today, down over 11% year to date, and trading at roughly 10 times forward earnings. BofA cut its price target to $140 from $145 in early April while maintaining a Buy rating.

Image: Shutterstock