Mainstream coverage spent months cycling through contenders for Tim Cook’s replacement, with former COO Jeff Williams and software chief Craig Federighi near the top of most lists.

Polymarket was not so indecisive. The Next CEO of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) contract had John Ternus as the favorite since January, logging $985,647 in volume before resolution.

Ternus, 50, is a 25-year Apple veteran who ran hardware engineering for the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, AirPods and Vision Pro.

Polymarket’s active Apple markets suggest traders think the hardware guy sticks to hardware.

Hardware Bets Lead The Board

A contract on whether Apple ships a foldable iPhone before 2027 is trading at 79% YES on $129,005 in volume.

The device is reportedly on track for a September debut alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, rebutting earlier reports of manufacturing delays. Leaks suggest it may launch under the “iPhone Ultra” name rather than iPhone Fold.

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects a $2,000 to $2,500 starting price for a 7.8-inch book-style foldable using Samsung Display OLED panels.

A second hardware market has traders at 62% YES on a touchscreen MacBook arriving in 2026. Cook spent years publicly dismissing the idea on ergonomic grounds.

What Traders Are Fading

Traders are less bullish on category expansion. A contract on whether Apple launches a new product line before 2027, covering categories like a home robot or smart glasses, sits at just 35% YES on $270,138 in volume. Apple’s rumored AI glasses reportedly target a 2027 rollout, a timeline that falls outside the contract window.

The bet across the board is incremental hardware, not new categories.

The AI Problem Ternus Inherits

Analysts say Ternus takes over a company trailing megacap peers in AI. Wedbush’s Dan Ives said there will be pressure on the incoming CEO “out of the gates, especially on the AI front.”

The company has sat out the AI capex race while competitors commit hundreds of billions to data centers and chips, and its Siri overhaul, now powered by Google’s Gemini, has been repeatedly delayed.

Apple reports fiscal second-quarter earnings on April 30, Cook’s last scheduled call as chief executive.

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