Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has stalled at $78,000 as Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) warns two resistance levels could cap the rally despite $1.4 billion in weekly ETF inflows.

The $78,000 Cost Basis Problem

The active investor cost basis sits at approximately $78,000, where last week’s rally stopped. This represents the average price investors paid for Bitcoin on secondary markets.

Jim Ferraioli, Director of Digital Currencies Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, says both the $78,000 and $83,000 levels show that the average Bitcoin investor is currently sitting at a loss.

“These levels could serve as much stronger areas of resistance than moving averages,” Ferraioli told Decrypt.

Why $83,000 Is The Real Sell Zone

Around $83,000 is the average cost basis across all spot Bitcoin ETPs. This is where new crypto investors are likely to sell to break even on their positions. 

The 200-day simple moving average sits at nearly $87,000, just above this level.

Simon Jones, Co-founder and CEO of Reya, says the $83,000 figure for spot ETP buyers is the more interesting level to watch. 

These are mostly institutional investors who came in through regulated products rather than quick trades.

“Given the sustained inflows we’ve seen, there’s a reasonable case that new demand absorbs any profit-taking at that level,” Jones told Decrypt.

The Bullish Case From ETF Inflows

Crypto funds posted three consecutive weeks of positive flows. U.S. inflows hit $1.5 billion last week. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) launched its spot Bitcoin ETF this month. 

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) filed for its own Bitcoin income ETF shortly after.

Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, points to a $664 million single-day surge on April 17 led by BlackRock’s IBIT (NASDAQ:IBIT) and Fidelity’s FBTC (BATS:FBTC).

“This steady absorption of supply sets the current cycle apart from past retail-driven manias,” Adziima told Decrypt.

Waiting On The CLARITY Act

The market is waiting for the CLARITY Act to pass as a major catalyst. 

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 has stalled in the U.S. Senate Banking Committee due to disputes over stablecoin yield provisions.

Retail investors remain bullish. They assign a 60% chance that Bitcoin stays above $76,000 by 4 pm UTC on April 22, up from 33.5% just two days earlier.

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