Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has gained roughly 20% since its February lows, recovering to around $76,000 despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Analysts say the move is bringing the market to a critical inflection point.

Buyers Return To Breakeven

Zach Pandl noted in an Apr. 21 update that Bitcoin rebounded sharply after bottoming near $63,000 on Feb. 5.

On-chain data shows the "realized price" for coins moved in the past one to three months sits around $74,000. This means many recent buyers are now back at breakeven.

Historically, when short-term holders move from losses to breakeven and then into profit, it can signal the early stages of a new bullish phase, as selling pressure tends to ease and confidence gradually returns.

Pandl added that this dynamic points to a potential durable bottom forming in the $65,000–$70,000 range, even though Bitcoin remains below its late-2025 highs.

Key Decision Zone

Veteran trader Cold Blooded Shiller highlighted that Bitcoin has now tested a similar resistance zone three times over the past eight months – October 2025, January 2026, and April 2026.

Each time, price failed to break higher, making this level a clear area where sellers consistently step in.

He said the current setup presents two clear scenarios:

  • Rejection: Another failure at this level would reinforce the range-bound structure and favor short-term downside trades
  • Breakout: A sustained move above resistance would mark a structural shift, likely triggering strong upside as Bitcoin exits its multi-month range

Overall, this is a key decision point wherein rejection keeps the range intact and a breakout could trigger a new trend.

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