Monthly Review – April 2026

The last month has been a reminder that geopolitics still matters, energy still matters, and all the fashionable chatter about markets floating free of the real economy was nonsense.

The conflict with Iran has become the central macro story because it hit the one pressure point that can still change everything in a hurry: oil.

Higher oil prices are not just an energy story. They are an inflation story, a rates story, a margins story, and a confidence story all at once.

If oil stays elevated, the transmission mechanism is straightforward. Consumers have less to spend, businesses see input costs rise, and central banks become less willing to cut rates. The entire system tightens.

The takeaway is simple. Expensive energy acts like a tax on the global economy, particularly in oil-importing regions, while simultaneously making policymakers more cautious.

Stocks have tried to look through it. Bond markets and central banks have not.

That disconnect matters.

What This Means for the Portfolio

This is not a tidy, one-sector shock. It is a broad squeeze on purchasing power that begins quietly and works its way through the system.

The message for us is not to panic — and not to pretend.

Higher oil prices have made the world:

  • Less friendly to rate cuts
  • Less friendly to consumers
  • More favorable to businesses with pricing power, strong balance sheets, and hard assets

That is exactly the type of environment this portfolio was built for.

You want:

  • Cash-generative industrials
  • Asset-heavy businesses
  • Select energy and commodity exposure
  • Companies tied to domestic investment cycles

You do not want:

  • Fragile balance sheets
  • Businesses dependent on cheap energy
  • Companies reliant on strong consumer sentiment

The world has not become uninvestable.

It has simply become less forgiving.

Portfolio Performance: Working As Designed

The portfolio is behaving exactly as it should in a difficult macro environment.

You have:

  • Strong winners
  • Clear laggards
  • Meaningful dispersion

That is not a bug.

That is the design.

Leaders

Sun Hung Kai Properties (SUHJY) is the standout, up over 41% year to date. This is what happens when you buy high-quality real assets at a discount and allow time to do its work. The market is slowly rediscovering that prime property in a global financial hub does not become worthless because sentiment turns negative.

You are also seeing solid contributions from Bolloré (BOIVF) and Swatch Group (SWGAY) — both classic examples of asset-backed businesses that get mispriced when macro fear takes over.

Laggards

On the other side, shipping and global trade names are under pressure.

A.P. Moller Maersk (AMKBY) declined more than 10% over the past month. That is not surprising. When oil rises and trade flows become uncertain, shipping tends to be one of the first sectors to feel the pressure.

The same dynamic is visible in China-sensitive cyclicals such as Anhui Conch Cement (AHCHY).

These are not broken businesses.

They are cyclical businesses being priced as though the cycle will not turn.

That is where value opportunities are created.

What the Portfolio Is Telling Us

There are three clear signals emerging from the portfolio this month.

1. Real Assets Are Working

Property, infrastructure-linked businesses, and asset-heavy companies are outperforming.

In an inflationary environment, tangible assets matter.

2. Cyclicals Are Under Pressure

Shipping, materials, and export-driven sectors are weak.

That is exactly where long-term opportunities tend to be built, not realized.

3. Dispersion Is High

This is what a real value portfolio looks like.

Different positions respond differently to the same macro shock.

Correlation is low.

That is a feature — not a flaw.

Discipline Over Drama

This is where most investors lose the plot.

Oil prices rise. Headlines get louder. Suddenly, every position is judged based on short-term performance instead of long-term value.

That is how:

  • Winners get sold too early
  • Cyclicals get abandoned at the bottom
  • Discipline turns into reaction

The portfolio does not require heroics.

It requires discipline.

Some positions are working now.
Others will work later.

That has always been the process.

The Bottom Line

The Iran conflict and rising energy prices have made markets more volatile and less forgiving.

That is precisely the type of environment where this portfolio has historically done its best work.

You are seeing:

  • Early validation in asset-heavy names
  • Temporary pressure in cyclical exposures

Taken together, that is not a problem.

It is a setup.

Stay disciplined. Stay selective. Focus on value — not noise.

Company-by-Company Review

Sun Hung Kai Properties (SUHJY)

Up 41.77% year to date and still trading at just 0.62x tangible book. A premier Hong Kong property company that should never have been priced for distress.

A.P. Moller Maersk (AMKBY)

Down 10.86% this month but still up year to date. Trading at 0.84x tangible book. This is classic cyclical volatility, not a broken investment thesis.

Bolloré (BOIVF)

Up 15.60% this month. Trading at 0.56x tangible book with minimal leverage. A textbook asset-rich holding company.

Anhui Conch Cement (AHCHY)

Down 11.13% this month. Trading at 0.76x book with a yield above 5%. A deeply out-of-favor cyclical.

Swatch Group (SWGAY)

Up 9.21% this month. Trading below book with no debt. Strong brands supported by a clean balance sheet.

Porsche Automobil Holding (POAHY)

Up 6.27% this month. Still deeply discounted at 0.27x book. A complex structure, but an obvious value gap.

Subaru (FUJHY)

Down 24.70% year to date. Trading at 0.74x book with a yield above 5%. Solid company, currently out of favor.

Dai Nippon Printing (DNPLY)

Steady performer. Trading at 1.23x book. Less dramatic, more consistent.

Barratt Redrow (BTDPY)

Down 26.72% year to date. Trading at 0.64x book with roughly a 6% yield. Classic cyclical pessimism.

Millrose Properties (MRP)

Up 8.03% this month with a yield above 9%. Trading below book. Strong income and asset exposure.

Assured Guaranty (AGO)

Trading at 0.68x book. A quiet, balance sheet-driven story.

Scorpio Tankers (STNG)

Up 48.81% year to date. Now trading at 1.22x book. Momentum reflects a strong tanker market.

Yue Yuen Industrial (YUEIY)

Trading at 0.76x book with a yield above 8%. An overlooked global manufacturer.

JOYY (JOYY)

Trading at 0.82x book with a yield above 6%. Sentiment remains the primary issue.

Autohome (ATHM)

Trading at 0.80x book with nearly a 9.5% yield. Market pricing in heavy pessimism.

Danaos (DAC)

Still trading at 0.57x book despite strong performance. A classic shipping value play.

Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP)

More operational strength than deep value. Trading above book.

Ingles Markets (IMKTA)

Up 33.68% year to date. A steady, consistent operator.

Meren Energy (MRNFF)

Strong energy exposure benefiting from current macro conditions.

Megaworld (MGAWY)

Extremely cheap at 0.26x book. Market continues to ignore Philippine real estate.

Genco Shipping (GNK)

Up 32.72% year to date. No longer extremely cheap, but still supported by the cycle.

Hello Group (MOMO)

Trading at 0.67x book. Sentiment remains the primary overhang.

Central Glass (CGCLF)

A steady industrial value play.

Movado Group (MOV)

Up nearly 40% year to date. Market rediscovering brand value and balance sheet strength.

Johnson Outdoors (JOUT)

A strong recovery story following a period of neglect.

NACCO Industries (NC)

Quiet, overlooked industrial trading below book.

Friedman Industries (FRD)

Cyclical steel exposure. Volatile, but potentially rewarding.

Deswell Industries (DSWL)

Deep value at 0.48x book, no debt, and a yield above 6%.

Final Take

The portfolio still looks exactly as it should:

A collection of:

  • Statistically cheap
  • Balance-sheet-strong
  • Globally diversified businesses

Some are working now.
Some are not — yet.

That is not a flaw.

That is the process.