Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has broken above the True Market Mean at $78,100 for the first time since mid-January, but Glassnode data shows profit-taking spiked to levels that marked every local top this year.

The $80,000 Resistance Wall

The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $80,100 represents the average acquisition price of investors who purchased within the last 155 days. 

A recovery toward $80,000 would push more than 54% of recent buyers into profit, historically the threshold where distribution pressure has exhausted bear market rallies.

“This is the second instance of this structure forming,” Glassnode analysts wrote. “Repeated encounters with this threshold reinforce its reliability as a local top indicator,” they added.

Short-Term Holder Realized Profit spiked to $4.4 million per hour. Every prior spike above $1.5 million per hour has coincided with a local top formation. The current reading is nearly three times that warning threshold.

Futures Driving The Rally, Not Spot

Julio Moreno, an on-chain analyst, warned that the recent Bitcoin price increase is “completely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market” while spot demand is still contracting. 

“The same happened in January, when Bitcoin peaked at $98K,” Moreno said.

Moreover “there are risks of a correction if traders start taking profits while spot demand continues to contract,” he added.

ETF Flows Turn Positive Again

U.S. Spot ETF flows have begun to recover, with the 7-day moving average shifting back into positive territory after a prolonged period of sustained outflows. 

This marks a notable change in institutional demand following heavy distribution throughout late January and February.

The recent inflow clusters suggest renewed allocation from traditional investors, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rebound from the approximately $65,000 lows into the mid-$70,000s.

Negative Funding Rates Build Short Squeeze Potential

Perpetual funding rates have shifted decisively lower, with sustained prints in negative territory across most major exchanges. 

This reflects a market increasingly skewed toward short positioning.

“Crowded short positioning can act as fuel for upside moves, particularly if spot demand re-emerges,” Glassnode analysts wrote.

The Gamma Setup

A large concentration of negative gamma sits below the current price, particularly in the $75,000 region. 

With Bitcoin trading around $79,000, the immediate upside shifts into a long gamma area where hedging flows tend to dampen moves, creating mechanical resistance.

“A move back toward the mid-$75,000 region would bring price into the short gamma zone, where dealer hedging can accelerate downside price action,” Glassnode noted.

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