Carson Group Market Strategist Ryan Detrick is well-known for sharing charts and historical trends on social media. Those trends might be what keep him bullish even when there are so many geopolitical concerns and negative headlines.

Detrick recently shared with Benzinga that 2026 is a big year for political trends as it is the year of midterms and the second year of a second-term president.

What Midterms Mean For Markets

According to data from Detrick, midterm years are historically the weakest of the four-year presidential cycle, which could be bad news for 2026.

Detrick recalled 2022 and 2018 in the interview as midterm years that saw the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, trade lower. In fact, those are the last two years that saw the SPY negative in a year.

Detrick recalled that events like the Federal Reserve being hawkish, the war between Ukraine and Russia, and higher inflation contributed to the past couple of midterm years being tough for investors.

The market expert doesn't see a Fed hike coming soon, while others do.

"We don't see a hike," Detrick said. "It's maybe a little more obvious now, but three weeks ago, people were literally saying the Fed's going to be hiking."

A chart shared by Detrick on X shows that while midterm years have the largest peak-to-trough corrections for the S&P 500, they average gains of 31.7% one year later.

Detrick said that the stock market indexes are hitting new all-time highs because investors were previously worried too much about the Fed and rates.

"Now there's reason to think the Fed's just on pause.

Second Year Of Second Term President

In addition to being a midterm year, 2026 is also the second year of President Donald Trump's second term. While the terms are not successive, Detrick says there are stats showing things may be positive for 2026.

History shows that the S&P 500 is positive in the second year of second-term presidents. This has happened a perfect 6-of-6, or 100% success rate, since 1950.

Detrick said the sample size is small and Trump's terms aren't successive, but history shows a pattern investors may not want to ignore.

"Maybe markets kind of know what they're getting into because when you have a new president, the first year things are going pretty good. And that second year usually has indigestion."

Detrick said there have been "some really solid returns" during the second years of second-term presidents since 1950.

"And that's another reason we thought that this year probably wouldn't be your typical potentially negative midterm year."

Carson Group has forecasted S&P 500 growth of 12% to 15% for 2026.

Photo Courtesy Ryan Detrick