President Donald Trump on Thursday ordered the US Navy to “shoot and kill any boat” laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, boasting that Iran’s naval ships were “ALL, 159 of them, at the bottom of the sea.”

Traders on prediction market Kalshi are pricing in a 52% chance that US gasoline prices top $5 per gallon at some point in 2026.

Oil Prices Climb As Hormuz Stays Shut

Brent crude popped above $105 after Iran’s Mehr news agency reported on Thursday that air defense systems were activated in parts of Tehran to counter unspecified hostile targets.

Trump added that US minesweepers are clearing the Strait, and ordered them to continue, but “at a tripled up level.”

The Pentagon said it intercepted two oil supertankers attempting to evade its blockade on Iranian ports. Tehran has said it will not return to negotiations while the blockade remains in place.

Traders See Rising Recession Risk

Kalshi’s market shows a 52% chance gas tops $5, a 46% chance it hits $4.80, and a 72% chance it climbs past $4.40 at some point this year.

The spillover is showing up elsewhere. Polymarket traders now price the odds of a US recession by year-end at 28%, up from 25% earlier this week, as it becomes clearer the Iran standoff is far from over.

The national average sits at $4.03 as of Thursday, down from an April 9 peak of $4.17 but still roughly 34% above where it stood before the Iran conflict began in late February.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said gas will fall to $3 or lower this summer. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said not until 2027.

Ticker Impact Across Energy And Travel

Energy names have tracked the oil tape closely. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) have both benefited from sustained crude strength, while the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) offers direct WTI exposure.

The demand side is where the squeeze shows up. Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) is down over 3% today after missing Q1 estimates on both the top and bottom lines, with the carrier saying updating its full-year profit guidance “would not be productive due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.”

Despite the geopolitical overhang, the S&P 500 is on track for its best month since 2022, with nearly 80% of companies beating first-quarter earnings estimates.

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