Avis Budget Group Inc (NASDAQ:CAR) shares are trading marginally higher Friday morning as traders reassess a short-seller's claims that the stock's earlier spike was driven by a manufactured short squeeze rather than fundamentals.
Avis Budget's tape is still being framed by the April squeeze that sent shares up 500% from lows in the $80s and printed $665 on Tuesday. That context matters ahead of the company’s April 29 earnings.
- Avis Budget Group stock is moving in positive territory. What’s pushing CAR stock higher?
What Is Driving Avis Budget Group’s Stock Movement?
A Fugazzi report released Thursday alleges that SRS Investment Management and Pentwater Capital Management built combined economic exposure of more than 100% of Avis's outstanding shares, effectively constraining the float and fueling a "violent" squeeze. The same report said that structure started unwinding on Wednesday, when the stock fell some 40%.
That unwind risk is amplified by how crowded the trade got: short interest has been described as “near 100%” during the run-up. For traders, that's the difference between a controlled pullback and a forced-move tape if lenders call shares back and shorts have to cover into thin liquidity.
The report also flagged balance-sheet stress, citing $25.3 billion of total indebtedness and negative stockholders' equity of $3.1 billion, alongside cumulative net losses of $2.71 billion across 2024 and 2025. It added that Avis generated $11.65 billion in annual revenue but only 56 cents in operating earnings for every $1.00 of interest owed.
Avis Budget Group Technical Levels To Watch
Avis is sitting well off its April 52-week high ($847.70), which frames the current tape as a post-squeeze reset rather than a steady trend. At $234.00, the stock is trading 27% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), a sign the near-term trend has cooled, while still trading 47.2% above its 100-day SMA, which points to a longer-term uptrend that hasn't fully broken.
The moving average structure is still constructive on paper, with the 20-day SMA above the 50-day SMA and a golden cross in April (50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA), but the stock's 22.9% cushion above the 50-day SMA is doing most of the work right now. That gap matters because it's the clearest "line in the sand" between a sharp pullback and a deeper trend change.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a trend/momentum measure, remains bullish with the MACD line above the signal line and a positive histogram, which leans toward downside pressure easing rather than accelerating. In everyday terms, MACD is saying the recent selloff's momentum is no longer getting worse at the same pace.
- Key Resistance: $319.00 — near the 20-day SMA, where rebounds have a higher bar to clear.
- Key Support: $189.00 — near the 50-day SMA, a common area where dip-buyers often defend trend.
Over the past 12 months, the stock is up 150.73%, which helps explain why positioning can stay jumpy when the narrative shifts. That kind of longer-term run often leaves a chart vulnerable to fast de-risking when catalysts (like short-squeeze mechanics) get questioned.
Avis Budget Group Earnings Preview For April
The countdown is on: Avis Budget Group, Inc. is set to report earnings on April 29.
- EPS Estimate: $-7.39 (Down from $-3.27 YoY)
- Revenue Estimate: $2.44 Billion (Up from $2.43 Billion YoY)
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Hold Rating with an average price target of $135.50. Recent analyst moves include:
- JP Morgan: Downgraded to Underweight (Raises Target to $165.00) (April 23)
- Barclays: Downgraded to Underweight (Raises Target to $150.00) (April 20)
- Morgan Stanley: Equal-Weight (Lowers Target to $97.00) (March 6)
CAR Stock Price Action in Premarket Trading
CAR Stock Price Activity: Avis Budget Group shares were up 2.69% at $235.30 during premarket trading on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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