Molson Coors Beverage Co (NYSE:TAP) is scheduled to report its first-quarter results on Thursday, April 30, before the market opens.
The earnings expectation has been reduced from 40 cents per share to 36 cents per share to reflect lower revenue and margin estimates in the Americas, according to JPMorgan.
• Molson Coors Beverage stock is trading near recent lows. What’s the outlook for TAP shares?
The Molson Coors Beverage Analyst: Analyst Drew Levine maintained a Neutral rating, while cutting the price target from $45 to $43.
The Molson Coors Beverage Thesis: The lowered estimate for the Americas is partially offset by higher estimates for the EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) and APAC (Asia-Pacific) regions, and the final estimate is still higher than the consensus of 35 cents per share, Levine said in the note.
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He also revised sales estimates for Molson Coors Beverage:
- Raised the estimate for constant-currency sales growth to 1.5%, from the previous projection of a decline of 0.9% and compared to the consensus of a 0.3% decline.
- Cut total sales growth estimate to 0.8%, from 1.4% previously.
- Now expects a volume decline of 3.8%, higher than the previous forecast of a 3.4% contraction, versus the consensus of a 2.3% decline.
The analyst expects the company's gross margin to shrink 234 basis points (bps) year-on-year to 33.8%, below the consensus of 34.8%.
Levine lowered the EPS estimate for 2026 from $4.71 per share to $4.65 per share, now representing a 14% year-on-year decline, and 2027 EPS from $5 per share to $4.75 per share, reflecting 1.9% growth versus 6.1% growth previously.
"The set up into the spring/summer also seems supportive with easier comparisons against poor weather and potential tailwinds (World Cup, America 250)," Levine wrote. He further stated, however, that Molson Coors Beverage's market share performance "has been lackluster" and the pricing environment is tough, although the acquisition of Atomic Brands could provide a boost to revenues this year.
TAP Price Action: Shares of Molson Coors Beverage had risen by 0.31% to $42.57 at the time of publication on Monday.
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