Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is decoupling from software stocks as inflation heads above 4%, setting up the negative real yields that historically send the token higher.

The Inflation Setup

Jordi Visser, a veteran macro investor with 30-plus years of experience, told Anthony Pompliano on an episode of Pompliano’s podcast on Saturday that service and manufacturing PMIs hit their highest levels since 2022 last week. 

Manufacturing bottlenecks are spreading from memory to CPUs to chemicals because of AI buildouts and Iran War disruptions.

“There is really no doubt in my mind that inflation is going higher,” Visser said. 

“Headline CPI is the one that I have confidence in will be above 4% as we keep getting this data,” he added.

He clarified that traditional inflation beneficiaries like housing and wages won’t improve. Instead, commodity prices, memory chips, CPUs, and semiconductors are driving the move with no end in sight.

Why Bitcoin Benefits Both Ways

Visser explained Bitcoin wins in both inflationary and deflationary environments simultaneously. 

In the inflationary case, negative real yields create the conditions Bitcoin thrives in. When CPI exceeds short-term rates, Bitcoin historically performs well.

In the deflationary case, Bitcoin benefits from opportunity cost. Software stocks are collapsing as AI agents eliminate terminal value for code-based businesses. 

Investors need growth assets for the next 40 years, but traditional growth isn’t working.

Visser pointed out that there’s no more margin left in code-based companies. Software is in freefall, which is why those stocks are getting crushed. Bitcoin doesn’t get hurt by that dynamic.

The Scarcity Trade

Visser is tracking five thematic baskets built around scarcity: semiconductors, chemicals, whole rack infrastructure, power, and optical fiber. 

All are surging as AI shifts from pre-training to the agentic action phase requiring massive physical infrastructure buildouts.

Bitcoin miners are benefiting from compute shortages, which Visser said is positive for Bitcoin’s broader ecosystem. 

The software stocks that performed best in the IGV ETF this month were almost all crypto-related names.

The Decoupling

IBM and ServiceNow reported earnings last week that spooked software investors. 

The market is recognizing that as the agentic world arrives, many software companies have no terminal value.

Visser noted that Bitcoin sits in the PMI-sensitive bucket alongside commodities and scarcity plays—not in the deflationary software bucket. 

The only piece missing for Bitcoin’s breakout is year-over-year CPI crossing above 4%, which Visser expects in the coming months.

“I think this is where Bitcoin separates itself in the second half of the year because of that dynamic playing out—both inflation and deflation at the same time,” Visser said.

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