Shayne Coplan‘s Polymarket has long wanted American traders back on its main exchange, and the company is now in talks with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to make that happen.

Bloomberg reported Tuesday that the prediction market platform has discussed lifting its ban on US-based customers in recent weeks.

That ban has been in place since a 2022 settlement that pushed Polymarket’s main exchange offshore.

Lifting it would require a formal commission vote, but that bar has dropped considerably.

The CFTC is mostly empty right now, with four of its five seats vacant.

That means Chairman Michael Selig could effectively act alone.

Selig previously said that he wanted prediction market liquidity that has fled overseas brought back home.

“To the extent that there are products available that are taking liquidity out of the United States, we’re going to make sure that we bring that back here into the United States under comprehensive regulation,” he said.

Why The Move Matters

The company has been losing ground to rival Kalshi since the Trump administration warmed to prediction markets. Polymarket’s U.S.-focused product, Polymarket US, is still in beta and has barely any trading volume, mostly limited to sports markets.

Bringing the main exchange onshore would unlock access to American retail traders, who make up a large portion of market volume globally and who Kalshi has been hoovering up uncontested.

Some of the discussions reportedly include merging the offshore platform’s blockchain technology with the licenses held by Polymarket US, and operating entirely on-chain.

Donald Trump Jr. advises both companies, and Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ:DJT) plans to launch its own prediction market product called Truth Predict.

What Happens To The War Contracts?

Polymarket currently hosts a slate of contracts tied to the Iran war, Hormuz closure, ceasefire timing, and military strikes that Kalshi and other US-regulated venues have steered clear of.

House Democrats wrote to Selig earlier this month asking why the CFTC had not cracked down on those offshore war bets, citing alleged insider trading on contracts tied to US military actions.

Kalshi has consistently said it considers war and assassination-style contracts illegal under federal rules.

If Polymarket comes onshore as-is, the CFTC would inherit oversight of contracts US regulators have refused to touch.

If those markets get pulled, Polymarket loses one of its most active categories at the worst possible time.

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