Vlad Tenev‘s Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD) reports Q1 earnings after the bell today, with the stock down nearly 30% year-to-date and traders bracing for another sell-the-news reaction after a 9% drop on the last earnings day.

The interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which specific words Tenev says on the call.

What Kalshi Traders Expect Tenev To Say

“International” sits at 97%.

Tenev has been pushing the international story hard, with Robinhood picking up in-principle approval from Singapore’s MAS, ramping UK ISAs, and entering Indonesia.

The EU footprint under MiCA now reaches 400 million people across 30 countries.

“Indonesia” trades as its own contract at just 20%.

Traders expect Tenev to sell the international expansion broadly but skip naming the newest market specifically.

“Tokenization” is at 95%. Robinhood’s EU stock token product offers over 200 U.S. equities plus private tokens of OpenAI and SpaceX, but the Bank of Lithuania has been seeking clarification on the structure since launch.

Any volume number on stock tokens may move HOOD.

“Acquisition” is at 87%. Robinhood closed its $200 million Bitstamp deal last June, and the joint venture with Susquehanna closed the 90% acquisition of MIAXdx in January.

Tenev may signal what is next in the M&A pipeline.

SIG At 45%, Kalshi At 30%

“SIG / Susquehanna” is at 45%, is a coin flip on whether Tenev names the Rothera partner directly.

Rothera is Robinhood’s prediction markets exchange, the joint venture that will let it list its own event contracts instead of relying on Kalshi.

Robinhood owns 45%, Susquehanna International Group owns 45%, and MIAX retained 10%.

The platform launches mid-2026 and gives Robinhood its own CFTC-licensed Designated Contract Market.

“Kalshi” itself sits at just 30%.

Robinhood currently lists Kalshi contracts as a futures commission merchant, but Rothera will compete for the same retail flow.

Whether Tenev frames Kalshi as partner or competitor may signal how aggressive the Rothera launch is.

Trump At 70%, Bitcoin At 40%

“Trump” at 70%. The administration’s pro-crypto posture has been a structural tailwind for Robinhood across multiple product lines, from the SEC’s kill of the pattern day trader rule on April 14 to the CFTC’s friendly stance on event contracts that underpins the Rothera thesis.

Tenev has multiple reasons to name-drop the President.

“Bitcoin” sits at 40%.

That is striking for a fintech that did 28% of last quarter’s transaction revenue from crypto. Crypto revenue fell 38% year-over-year in Q4, and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trades near $76,000.

One number that could matter tonight is prediction markets ARR, which ramped from $115 million in Q3 to $435 million in Q4.

Anything above $500 million may confirm Tenev’s prediction markets thesis.

Image: Shutterstock