Alexandria Real Estate (NYSE:ARE) released first-quarter financial results and hosted an earnings call on Tuesday. Read the complete transcript below.
This content is powered by Benzinga APIs. For comprehensive financial data and transcripts, visit https://www.benzinga.com/apis/.
View the webcast at https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=SvOT5Kb0
Summary
Alexandria Real Estate reported a tough first quarter but made solid progress on its strategic initiatives, including maintaining a strong balance sheet and reducing capital expenditure.
The company is focused on improving occupancy and has signed several letters of intent leading to leases, although public biotech leasing was notably absent this quarter.
Future guidance remains cautiously optimistic with a focus on the life science mega campuses and advanced technology tenants, despite challenges such as NIH and FDA leadership issues and capital market constraints.
Full Transcript
OPERATOR
Good day and welcome to the Alexandria real estate equities first quarter 2026 conference call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star than one on your telephone keypad. And to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note today's event is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Paula Schwartz with Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Paula Schwartz (Investor Relations)
Thank you and good afternoon everyone. This conference call contains forward looking statements. Within the meaning of the federal securities laws, the company's actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements is contained in the company's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Joel Marcus, Executive Chairman and founder. Please go ahead, Joel.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Thank you, Paula. And welcome everybody to our first quarter earnings call. With me today are Mark, Peter and Jenna. First of all, as I always do, want to say a thank you to our remarkable family team for their awesome efforts during a tough first quarter operating environment. And as they know well, we are motivated each and every day by our solemn mission to enable this precious life science industry, one of the most treasured and innovative industries on the face of the planet, to discover and bring to patients life saving and life changing therapies. And how many of us, friends, loved ones, still suffer from the likes of Parkinson's, ALS, pancreatic colon, breast, et cetera, cancers, dementia, to name a few. 2026. We celebrate the 50th anniversary of the DNA and biotech revolution. And we still have addressed less than 10% of human disease. The life science industry is a highly regulated industry dependent upon proper functioning of the four key pillars. As we've said before, strong and basic translational research is critical. There remains strong bipartisan support in Washington to fully fund the NIH. There was a great victory this quarter in the defeat of the 15% limitation on reimbursement of institutional indirect costs, which I think will be very, very well both received and implemented over the coming quarters and years. Unfortunately, August 24, the entire NSF National Science Foundation Advisory Board was fired. Their role is science and engineering advice. Kind of a shock. Leadership challenges remain at the NIH and HHS and FDA. Number two, strong innovation coupled with open and vibrant capital markets. Obviously we're in one of the maybe the greatest innovation time in the history of humankind on the capital markets they've been very selective. Private funding has been very solid but deliberate and discriminating. On the public side the markets have been open for good data and key milestones but for most public biotechs in preclinical or in the clinic which don't have data or milestones to finance off of, it's been a very tough slog. Number three, reliable and efficient regulatory framework. Continuing effort to need to reduce time and cost into and through the clinic. The FDA progress has been sluggish. Leadership and staffing pressures have been abundant and China continues to pressure the industry here at home. Number four, health payment and reimbursement environment for innovative medicine. CMS is actually operating quite well under the leadership of Dr. Oz. But both sides of the aisle are focused on drug pricing and it's hard to imagine that they haven't figured out an approach to cut out the middleman which takes 40 to 60% of medicine pricing which would ease the burden both on the recipients of care and on the innovative drug discoverers. We get often asked about AI in all realms of all industries and I think it's fair to say that most of you know by now we've got 37 trillion cells in each of our bodies and AI can support but not replace physical experimentation. Biology is just way too complex at this stage. R&D cannot go fully in silico given the massive complexity of biology. And give you an example, Novartis's CEO who just joined the board of Anthropic said we only understand less than 5% of human of the functioning of the human body today. And as you know, drug development is very complex from target discovery to hit generation to lead identification to optimization to clinical triALS and on to commercialization. And it's pretty clear that the authorities in this area believe AI cannot replace physical experimentation. Most current usage is still document centric, not biology breaking push button Drug discovery is overhyped and even native AI companies in this sector haven't proven dominance whatsoever. It's pretty clear that AI is not fully autonomous discovery but is aimed at compressing timelines and increasing throughput and recovering lost institutional knowledge. And that is all really good. I think most experts believe that AI will have a small impact on real estate requirements and could even see the need for additional dry and wet space as they run experiments designed by AI Moving to the first quarter. As all of you know, it was a very tough operating environment, but we made very solid Progress on our path forward laid out in detail at our investor day. Number one was to maintain a strong and flexible balance sheet and Mark will talk more about that. Number two is to reduce capital spend and funding needs going forward and I think we're well on our way to refining or reducing refining and reducing capex in our pipeline and we've ALSo been fortunate to sign quite a number of Lois leading to leases which will reduce the capex into the lease statistics as we go forward. Something that is a cornerstone to this this year in this reset is to substantially complete a large scale core, non core and sales of partial interest disposition plan. We are on track even though the first quarter was relatively quiet but we fully intend like last year to meet our goal and I think it's fair to say and Peter can expound on this when during Q and A the transaction market for life science assets is even better this year than it was last year and we have a high level of confidence. 4 We want to steadily improve occupancy and increase NOI focused on leasing. The pinch point in leasing has been this is one of our lower quarters but we look to bounce back nicely next quarter. This is maybe the first quarter in the history of the company that I can remember where we didn't sign a single public biotech lease. So that gives you a sense of what the environment is out there. I think it's fair to say in our pre read we highlighted the sale which closed during the fourth quarter but it's emblematic of the quality and value of the underlying life science assets that we continue to hold especially on the mega campus. Our disposition of 409499 Illinois street in Mission Bay received a record pricing of $1,645 per square foot the highest ever achieved for lab asset in San Francisco and by it was 40% occupied. Fair to say that this year what is critical for us is to continue our path forward. The mega campuses will continue to differentiate us. Our balance sheet will remain strong and flexible. We've worked on continuing to lower G and A. The quality of our assets continues to be outstanding as recognized by our tenants as well as our operational excellence and clearly a best in class team throughout. I think finally fair to say that if you look at our top 20 tenants 80% of the top 20 tenants are investment grade or large cap companies and that's very reassuring. 55% of our total ARR comes from that. And of the top 20 we have almost a 10 year Walt which is really great and we have one I think the longest WALT of not Walt but duration of our debt and Mark will talk about that. And then finally 78% of our ARR comes from our mega campus platform, which we've been working hard on. So with that kind of intro to the quarter, let me turn it over to Mark for his detailed comments.
Mark Vinda (Chief Financial Officer)
Thank you Joel. This is Mark Vinda, Chief Financial Officer. Good afternoon everybody. First a Congratulations to the entire Alexandria team for the outstanding operational execution of the steps of our path forward set forth at our December Investor Day despite a very challenging industry backdrop, including first, outperformance on capturing leasing demand in our largest markets relative to our market share. I'll get to that later. Third second, positive development and redevelopment leasing momentum with the execution of development and redevelopment leases and letters of intent aggregating 394,000 square feet third, focus on improving occupancy with cumulative leasing of vacant space of 1.1 million square feet that will deliver in September on average fourth, continued general administrative expense savings of 7.4 million compared to the 2024 quarterly average fifth, a $366 million gain associated with our unsecured bond tender which reduced our overall debt and sixth, significant fundraising efforts with 2.2 billion of dispositions and sales, partial interest pending or identified and in process. FFO per share diluted AS adjusted was $1.73 for 1Q26 and we reaffirmed the midpoint of our guidance for FFO per share diluted as adjusted for 2026 at $6.40 low while tightening the range. Leasing volume for the quarter was 647,000 square feet. The decline in total lease volume was driven by the following first, as expected, lower renewals in releasing space given the 657,000 square feet of key known lease expirations that we anticipated would become vacant during the quarter and second, limited demand from public biotech with zero leasing volume in the first quarter, a segment of our tenant base which accounts for 25% of our annual rental revenue. A bright spot for the quarter includes the positive momentum on development leasing with 118,000 square feet executed and another 276,000 square feet of signed letters of intent for existing development and redevelopment space. Looking ahead to the second quarter, we do expect an uptick in total leasing volume of around 900,000 square feet given early activity to date. Free rent and rental rate changes on renewed and release space were under pressure in 1Q26, which reflects the market realities and includes a 48,000 square foot lease at 40 Arsenal and Watertown for a 12 year term which was a significant contributor to the rental rate reduction of about 15% and 15.8% on a cash basis for the quarter. Alexandria continues to dominate in our largest markets. This is a really important takeaway in our largest three markets. During 1Q26 we captured on average around twice the leasing volume compared with our market share of life science real estate. For Greater Boston we captured approximately 20% of the total leases in the market, which is 153% of our market share. For San Francisco bay we captured 30% of the total leases in the market, so, which is 253% of our market share. And for San Diego we captured approximately 67% of the total leases in the market which is 208% of our market share. These stats highlight Alexandria's dominant brand sponsorship, mega campus, quality location and the best team in the business. Occupancy at the end of 1Q26 was 87.7%, down 320 basis points from the prior quarter, primarily driven by the 657,000 square feet of key known lease expirations which went vacant during the quarter. We have an additional 747,000 square feet of key lease expirations expected to go vacant in 2026 with approximately 45% of that expected to expire in the second quarter which should put pressure on occupancy for 2Q26. For 2H26 we expect occupancy to benefit from the 1.1 million square feet of vacant space that has been leased and is expected to deliver in September on a weighted average basis. We updated the midpoint of our guidance range for year end 2026 occupancy from 88.5% to 87% or a reduction of 1.5% which was primarily due to a reduction in the anticipated benefit from a range of several potential disposition propert which have vacant space. Our initial guidance assumed a 2% benefit and we now assume around a 1% benefit as we no longer expect to sell as many assets with significant vacant space. It's important to highlight that we've had good leasing interest on some of these types of properties. With vacant space, tenants continue to prioritize asset quality, location, best in class operations, sponsorship and brand trust which distinguishes Alexandria as well as our mega campuses which represent 78% of our total annual rental revenue at 1Q26. Importantly, this has led to significant occupancy outperformance by Alexandria in the mid to high 80% range across our largest three markets compared to market occupancy in the mid to high 70% range for these same markets. At the end of 1Q26, same property net operating income was down 11.9% and 11.7% on a cash basis for 1Q26 which was primarily driven by a reduction in occupancy. Consistent with my commentary on our last earnings call, we expect stronger performance in the second half of 2026 primarily driven by improved occupancy compared with the corresponding prior year period. It's important to also highlight that our anticipated same property pool also had lower occupancy in the second half of 2025 compared with the first half of 2025, which, all things being equal, should help same property performance in the second half of 2026. We updated the midpoint of our guidance range for same property net operating income from down 8.5% to down 9.5% or 1% reduction due to a decrease in the anticipated benefit from a range of several disposition properties which have vacant space similar to the dynamics I described for the change in occupancy guidance. Despite the current challenges in the Life Sense real estate market, we continue to benefit from a very high quality tenant base with 55% of our annual rental revenue coming from investment grade or publicly traded large cap tenants, long remaining lease terms of seven and a half years, average rent steps approaching 3% on 97% of our leases and strong adjusted EBITDA margins of 66% for 1Q26. We continue to focus on one of the pillars of our path forward which includes the continuing successful reduction in management of general and administrative expenses. We remain on track with our guidance range of 134 to 154 million for 2026 which represents around a 14% savings at the midpoint compared to our 2024 benchmark or about 24 million in annual savings on a combined basis for 2025 and 2026. We expect G&A expense savings of around $76 million in aggregate relative to 2024 and our trailing twelve month G&A as a percentage of net operating income through 1Q26 of 6% is less than half the average of all S&P 500 REITs over the last three years at around 14.3% for 1Q26. Realized gains included in FFO per share diluted as from our venture investments were 18 million and we REITerated our guidance range for realized investment gains of 60 to 90 million for 2026. Capitalized interest for 1Q26 was 70 million, which was down around 12 million from the prior quarter. The decline was primarily driven by a pause on construction and pre construction activities on assets that were sold or Designated for sale in 4Q25 we expect capitalized interest to decline in the second half of 2026 due to a combination of factors including first the completion and delivery of some of our current development and redevelopment projects under construction and second the potential for pauses or ultimate dispositions related to land including some portion of the land with real estate basis averaging 1.2 billion with pre construction milestones in August of 2026 on a weighted average basis, we reduced our guidance for capitalized interest by 5 million at the midpoint of our range with a corresponding increase to interest expense due to anticipated earlier completion of certain construction and pre construction milestones and pauses related to several projects in the second half of 2026. When you hand start disclosures for capitalized interest to highlight construction and pre construction milestones broken down by year, including the following first land with 567 million of real estate basis with pre construction milestones in April 2027 on a weighted average basis and second development and redevelopment projects under evaluation for business and financial strategy of 1.3 billion spread across five projects with construction milestones in March of 2027 on a weighted average basis. We continue to evaluate each project individually. If in the future we decide not to move forward these projects beyond these construction milestones, capitalization of interest for these projects would cease along with other related project costs including payroll which are highlighted on page 42 of our supplemental package. We have 1.9 million square feet of projects under construction and expected to stabilize through 2028, which are 77% leased, including around 600,000 which is expected to stabilize in 2026 which is 93% leased. We also have 1.6 million square feet spread across five different projects for which we are evaluating the business and financial strategy. I'll walk through the four largest first, 421 Park Drive is located in our Fenway MEGA campus. This is a ground up development intended for laboratory use. We expect this project to be attractive to the many nearby institutions and the outcome for this project will depend on tenant interest and we expect to have critical construction milestones in early 2027 which we are evaluating. Second, 40 Sylvan Road is located in our Waltham MEGA campus. We believe this project could be attractive to advanced technology tenants that may find certain elements of the building attractive and may not require a full conversion to lab. This project has critical construction milestones in the second half of 2026 which we are also carefully evaluating. Third, 311 Arsenal street is located on and is highly integrated into our Arsenal on the Charles MEGA Campus located in Watertown in Greater Boston. We are seeing good activity for this project from Advanced Technology users and we recently executed approximately 82,000 square feet of letters of intent with four tenants for this of use which increased the lease negotiating percentage for this project up to 28% and fourth, 3000 Minuteman Road is located in our mega campus along Route 495 north of Boston. We believe this site will be attractive to Advanced Technology tenants as evidenced by the 160,000 square foot letter of intent we recently signed for a portion of the project for both 311 Arsenal street and 3000 Minute End Road. If we complete these Advanced Technology leases, we may place all or some portion of these spaces into the operating pool which may reduce operating occupancy in the near term but more importantly will reduce our capital needs and generate near term revenue upon delivery. We continue to focus on our disciplined strategy to recycle capital from dispositions and partial interest sales to support our funding needs with a focus on the substantial completion of our large scale non core asset program in 2026 and we expect land to comprise 10 to 25% of the 2.9 billion midpoint of our guidance for 2026 dispositions and sales of partial interest with core non core and sales of partial interest to comprise the balance of 75 to 90%. Our guidance assumes a weighted average completion date of August 2026 which is about a month later than our initial guidance provided at our investor day. We believe there is strong institutional interest for our core assets at a reasonable cost of capital and accordingly, we believe that joint ventures for some of our core assets could be a significant component of our capital plan and we expect to have more details over the next quarter on the mix of dispositions as well as the timing as this continues to evolve. Our team is making good progress with about 80% of the 2.9 billion midpoint for dispositions and sales of partial interest pending or identifying and in process. We expect to make decisions on the remaining 20% over the next several months. In early December, our board authorized a reload and extension of the common stock repurchase program of up to $500 million. Our guidance does not assume any common stock repurchases in 2026 based upon current market conditions and we're currently prioritizing our fundraising efforts to go towards our existing capital needs before we consider future common stock repurchases we continue to have a strong and flexible balance sheet. Our corporate credit ratings continue to rank in the top 15% of all publicly traded US REITs. We have tremendous liquidity of 4.2 billion and the longest average remaining debt maturity among all S&P 500 REITs of 10 years. We REITerated our guidance range for 4Q26 net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA of 5.6 to 6.2 times. As expected our first quarter 2026 leverage increased to 6.8 times on a quarterly annualized basis and we expect leverage to come down in the second half of 2026. As we make progress on our dispositions and sales of partial interest, we tighten the range of our guidance for 2026 FFO per share diluted as adjusted with no change to the midpoint of $6.40. We made a number of changes to the underlying assumptions for guidance which were primarily driven by two items. First, we reduced rental rate changes and rental rate changes on a cash basis by 7% and 3% respectively, primarily for two transactions which include a 48,000 square foot long term lease completed during 1Q26 in Watertown to an entertainment studio user and an 81,000 square foot lease completed in April, an exciting growth stage life science company to backfill a struggling tenant located in Torrey Pines, and we continue to focus on capturing demand and meeting the market for the right tenants. Second, our initial guidance assumptions for occupancy and same property performance included a 2% and 3% benefit respectively for a range of assets that could be considered for sale during 2026 due to changes in the mix of assets considered for sale this year. Since our initial guidance, we now have a smaller assumption for sales of assets with significant vacancy. Accordingly, we reduced our outlook for occupancy and same property performance by 1 and a half percent and 1% respectively, to reflect an updated assumption that we hold on to more assets with vacancy in part due to good tenant interest on these types of assets. At our investor day in December, we provided a guidance range for 4Q26 FFO per share diluted as adjusted of $1.40 to $1.60 with a midpoint of $1.50. We refine this range to $1.40 to $1:50, which implies a 5 cent decline at the midpoint of the range of $1.45, which is primarily related to a reduction in capitalized interest. As I discussed earlier, it's important to note that while our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026 implies a $0.05 reduction in the midpoint to $1.45. The midpoint for the full year 2026 FFO per share diluted as adjusted was unchanged at $6.40 and benefited from later timing on the projected timing of dispositions and sales of partial interest which was moved back by about a month. In addition, we also provided several key current considerations on page six of our supplemental package that highlight several factors that could have an impact on our results in and beyond 2026, including 1 1/2 million square feet of lease expirations for 2027. With approximately $97 million of annual rental revenue that are expected to have downtime and which we are closely monitoring, we remain keenly focused on executing steps for our path forward that we established at our investor day, including maintaining a strong and flexible balance sheet, reducing funding needs substantially, completing our large scale non core disposition plan, focusing on improving occupancy and NOI, and successfully managing GNA among others. With 10,000 known diseases and limited cures and treatments, the industry has a lot to accomplish and we continue to to believe that life science companies will continue to recognize Alexandria as the market leader with the best assets in the best locations and the best on the ground teams to operate these mission critical research facilities. Now I'll turn it back to Joel.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Operator, let's go to questions please.
OPERATOR
Yes sir. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, we ask that you please pick up your handset before pressing the keys to withdraw yourself from q, please press star then 2. Today's first question comes from Farrell Granite with B of A. Please go ahead.
Farrell Granite (Equity Analyst)
Hello, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I first wanted to address the change in occupancy guidance that you made commentary about the consideration of those assets no longer being considered for disposition, but the disposition guidance did maintain at the 2.9 billion. So just wondering if you could bridge that change. What other assets were maybe being considered. Is it more assets that don't have as much vacancy or is it land and just trying to understand that mix.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Yeah, Mark, Yeah. So it was a change in the mix. As you said, the midpoint was unchanged. There were, you know, a handful of assets that we had been considering for sale that had vacancy that we've seen in some cases some good leasing interest from tenants. And so you know, we ended up changing some of the assumptions to other assets that have more kind of stabilized occupancy. The ultimate Mix, you know, we gave a broader range this time around of 75 to 95 to 90% for both core, non core as well as joint ventures. So that's really where the, where the change in the mix will come in that component. And we should be able to have more color on what that looks like over the, I'd say hopefully over the next quarter or two.
Farrell Granite (Equity Analyst)
Thank you. And my second question is about the leasing into the entertainment studio for the arsenal lease. Just curious about that type of exit opportunity of reaching the demand that's in the market and maybe being an alternative use. How much of the near term or line of sight leasing is potentially for this alternate use versus life science?
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Well, yeah, Farrell, this is Jewel. The entertainment tenant was an existing tenant and it was a renewal given the fact that, you know, rental rates for that type of space have come down in the area. So it seemed prudent to renew tenant in hand rather than empty out the space and reposition it or whatever. So it wasn't, you know, it wasn't a new use. It was already there. And that's an asset that we've owned for probably 20 years. But I think you see through a number three 11 arsenal, we've had very good activity with a range of advanced technology companies where we can utilize the space at a, you know, less capex investment. Rental rates are not as buoyant as lab, but those represent good opportunities. So it really depends on the location, the type of space. It's hard to generalize.
Farrell Granite (Equity Analyst)
Okay, thank you so much.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
You're welcome.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And our next question today comes from Seth Berge at Citi. Please go ahead.
Nick Joseph
Thanks. It's Nick Joseph here with Seth. Just given the FDA leadership uncertainty and NIH budget pressures, have you seen any behavioral changes on the private biotech tenant side around expansion decisions or sublease activity or requests for lease modifications?
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Well, on the private side, I think we've said that ventures continue to raise money and deploy that money. They've done it in a much more judicious fashion than during, obviously the bull market run of the last decade. And then kind of the, you know, rocket ship of COVID just given market conditions and the fact that you can't, you know, some companies can execute an ipo, but it's pretty difficult. But overall, I think that the FDA impact to the private side is really more impactful on the public markets. But they do obviously impact the private markets in the sense of confidence in raising the money. But I don't know. Jenna, any comments you want to make
Jenna
I think that's right. I think overall FDA uncertainty as far as policy is concerned, changes. I mean, obviously there are some things that the FDA has tried to do and announcements in trying to expedite regulatory review processes and the like, which is hopefully net positive for the industry. But that's not really playing out, as Joel mentioned on the private side just yet, but publics are kind of contending with that a bit more.
Nick Joseph
That's helpful. Thank you. And then just curious, any changes to the current tenant watch list relative to kind of the past few quarters?
Mark Vinda (Chief Financial Officer)
Yeah, Mark, you could comment on that. Yeah, look, we continue to evaluate tenants really on a, you know, kind of one by one, tenant by tenant basis. I will say, you know, at the beginning of the year or really at our investor day, I think we, we had identified something around 23 million. That number has, has crept, crept up in terms of a reserve for wind downs or, you know, tenant failure. That number today is somewhere in that 25 to 30 million dollars range. And it's, you know, it's through a variety of, it's a variety of tenants, you know, both private and public biotech as well as, you know, the kind of the ancillary type tenants, the revenue kind of producing tenants that also service those types of tenants as well.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Yeah, I think, you know, Seth, if you look at the. Just one comment on that, if you look at the current environment over the last, say, year or two as distinguished from historical biotech, this is the first time that companies have really more or owners have more aggressively, not at the public level, but at the private level, tried to combine companies or wind down companies that they feel that the opportunities for the marketplace just aren't there. And so that's just part of capital discipline and the judiciousness with which people are watching dollars again, given tight public capital markets. So that's the big change I think that we've seen compared to historical.
Nick Joseph
Thank you.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And our next question today comes from Ronald Camden with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Ronald Camden (Equity Analyst)
Great. Thanks so much. I was looking through some of the disclosure on the 2027 expirations, which were really helpful in terms of I think there were some added expirations coming in 2027 versus prior. I guess my question is, as we're sort of putting it all in the blender and you're thinking on a same store basis, it seems likely that 2027 could be down similar magnitudes as 2026. Given it's a pretty similar setup with the expiration level, is that a fair way to think about it or just what breadcrumbs would you provide for that?
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Yeah, so I'll ask Mark to come in. But maybe just from a top side view, I think we're not. It's so early in the year and so much can change. Just look at what changed last year from inauguration through the year was kind of couldn't believe the impact of the industry. It's pretty clear that, number one, we can't give 27 guidance at the moment. And number two, I think we're hopeful, as you see from some of the, if you call them breadcrumbs, but you know, the movement in leasing, whether it be for life science or alternative advanced technology to be, you know, gaining some good foothold there. And I think that gives us hope that, you know, we can address some of these. As I said, one of our key elements to the path forward is increase, you know, occupancy and hence noi. But Mark, any comments you want to make?
Mark Vinda (Chief Financial Officer)
Yeah, just that, as Joel said, we're not ready to give guidance for 27. But certainly, you know, you're right that there's a. There's some expirations that we expect to have downtime. But a lot of the ultimate answer to your question is how quickly can we lease up vacant space, lease up the developments, et cetera, to blend into an occupancy number. That makes sense. And a lot will really just depend on where the industry goes and a lot of these kind of macro factors. But we'll continue to lease and I hope continue to outperform in terms of capturing the amount of demand.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Yeah, and a couple of examples that Mark mentioned, 311 Arsenal and 3,000 Minuteman are really good examples of that. Where we were having chronic vacancy and figuring out, you know, the strategy that we wanted to go forward, whether it is, you know, hold and lease, whether it's reposition, whether it's disposition, etc. And I think just those incremental achievements this quarter have been positive. So that just gives you a little bit of the change we're seeing.
Ronald Camden (Equity Analyst)
Great. My second question was just on the dispositions. It sounds like there's a little bit of a pivot away from some of the more vacant assets. I think you said you're considering JVs now. I guess my question is, is there also a change in sort of pricing expectations and is there any sort of market concentrations where you're seeing more or less traction?
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Thanks. Yeah, so I'll ask Peter to comment, but let me say in general, I think any mix And Mark is kind of giving you the mixing bowl and there's a slide in the precept. Reid. It's very dependent upon traction of leasing and where we see leasing progress, especially if we can lease for lower capex and get get quicker noi realization we're going to pivot on that particular asset in a positive way. That doesn't mean that someday we would hold the asset indefinitely, we might choose to sell it. But I think that's been the key driver. But Peter, just a comment or two on the transaction market.
Peter
Yeah, we have just found that there's a good amount of core type capital in the market that's looking for high quality assets. So we wanted to leverage that. We have found a way to do it through JVs. But I wanted to say that it doesn't mean that our non core asset sales would suffer through because of that. There's still a lot of people out there looking at those types of acquisitions as well. And everything that we have been marketing has been well received and does have multiple people looking at it. So got a lot of confidence that we're going to hit our numbers despite the fact that we didn't do much this quarter, although we let people know that early. But anyway, yeah, the amount of money from the core side that's coming into the market that has really just allowed us to lower our cost of capital overall by doing some of these JVs.
Ronald Camden (Equity Analyst)
Really helpful. Thank you.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And our next question today comes from Anthony Palone with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Anthony Palone (Equity Analyst)
Yeah, thank you. Joel, you mentioned the FDA and judicious capital markets as being some factors out there in the environment. But just are there any other items that you think right now are impacting the demand for space? Has there been any change in sort of like the type of space folks want or this is just going to take a while to play out?
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Well, I think the pinch points are a couple of pinch points. One is the turmoil at NIH which caused a lot of certainly impacted us directly in a number of markets and now that's easing up with the limitation on the indirect cost reimbursement that the NIH was doing. And then kind of the NIH going to the Hill wanting a reduction in their budget, which I've never actually heard of anybody who would want to do that when the Senator or when Congress on both sides of the aisle are in favor of more or less fully funding the NIH. So that's early stage stuff and hopefully that gets worked out over time. I think there's some good positive there. But leadership is a problem. I think the FDA is a huge problem almost every day. There was just a release today that looks like they may try to pull an approved drug off the market because the FDA claims that maybe there was some manipulation in data. So almost every day you're getting a shock effect from the FDA, both at the, you know, leadership and at the core level. And I think that's very real because as people think about funding, whether it's, you know, preclinical or into the clinic, you've got to be mindful of time, cost and approvability. I think that another pinch point clearly is the capital markets. As I said, you know, public biotech, whether they're pleased, preclinical or clinical, can't really finance unless they've got data or a milestone. And that's kind of a killer situation. You know, zero public biotech leases this quarter to the leading franchise is, you know, unheard of. And then I think finally there is the China effect, which a lot of capital is flowing to China for, you know, perceived ease of time frames and cost. I think that ultimately is going to backfire like a lot of offshoring that has taken place because, you know, Chinese data is not going to be allowed without going through a pretty rigorous FDA, you know, approvability and oversight. But I think there a lot of people are trying to get drugs into the clinic in China and then bring them over. And so that certainly impacted, I think, space. So I think all those factors together, you know, have made it a much more challenging operating environment. But you know, Todd Young, who's senator from Indiana's got a, you know, a bill and an effort to try to curtail some of this craziness with China. It's a little bit about how we offshore autos and, you know, steel over the last many decades and then realized that, boy, you can't do that, or rare earth minerals, you can't leave them in the hands of a potential adversary. So I think there will be congressional action. It probably will come after the midterms, unfortunately, just because there's so much controversy. But I think it'll happen because this is a critical industry and we continue to lead the world. But the, the fact is China is a powerhouse and their government has poured immeasurable resources into this while we're kind of in disarray at the moment, which is unfortunate, but I think we'll get our act together here.
Anthony Palone (Equity Analyst)
Okay, that's real helpful. Thank you for that. And then just second one on 421 Park Drive. I just, I didn't quite what were the considerations or what were the options were as you evaluate that, because I think there's a little bit of leasing there, but I could tell if it was a change of use or. I just wanted to understand that a bit better.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Yeah. So 421 is state of the art lab. It is. We've sold several floors of that on a condo basis to a major institution in Boston and the rest remains for lease or for sale in the sense of a condominium kind of situation. But the NIH 15% kind of brought a halt to almost all demand, certainly in the Boston area and to some extent across the country. Now that that has been overturned in the circuit courts and the administration has not chosen to fight it. I think the path forward there likely will be institutional leasing or sale of condominium interests. So we're waiting for that to kind of evolve. I don't think we would pivot to another use there likely. I mean, it could be office, you know, from Longwood Medical center or the Fenway. There is a huge amount of medical related office demand there. And so that's a possibility. But we feel pretty good about the future there. Now that the 15% issue has kind of gone by the wayside. It'll just take a little bit of time.
Anthony Palone (Equity Analyst)
Okay, thank you.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Yep, thank you.
OPERATOR
And our next question today comes from Jim Kamert with Evercore. Please go ahead.
Jim Kamert (Equity Analyst)
Good day. Thank you very much, Joel. And team, pardon my ignorance, what do you define as advanced technology tenants? And I'm just trying to get a sense of maybe not your tenants, but what would those industries or tenants representatively be and what would sort of be the tenets of that sort in the market across your three primary Boston, San Diego, San Francisco markets?
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Well, a lot of that is secret sauce. So. But let me say, I think, you know, an example and you guys were just there at Campus Point when you did the tour with us. That campus holds, you know, primarily we're delivering the Bristol Myers west coast research headquarters Hub. We're working. We just broke ground on Novartis and there's a lot of, you know, early stage biotech there. But the campus, in addition to being heavily big pharma, is heavily advanced technology. Two tenants really make up maybe 25% of the rent roll there. One is a Amazon. This is not a fulfillment or a distribution. This is part of, you know, I really can't say what part of Amazon, but it is a very sophisticated and research oriented part of Amazon and they've been there for quite A long time. And then we did a build a suit on that, on that property. I think we showed you the buildings or the building several stories of brand new office for Leidos who does the. They manufacture the advanced screening technology at airports, et cetera. And then we built several floors of skiff space below that. So we consider both the Amazon use and the Leidos use as advanced technology uses. So advanced technology is pretty broad. We've been involved in it since, I mean we did Google, although Google, you know, is not necessarily an office or a lab type tenant, although we've leased to some of their subsidiaries. Laboratory would be advanced technology is pretty broad definition. But I don't necessarily on a, you know, on a public call get into how we view this and how we're trying to position some of our spaces because obviously it's a highly competitive marketplace. But the demand there is large and the funding there is large.
Jim Kamert (Equity Analyst)
Very helpful. And then for a second question. Thank you. As regards to the 4Q 140 to 150 run rate, does that contemplate at the lower end, 3.7 billion potentially of capital recycling or more closer to the midpoint of 2.9 billion. Just trying to square some of our modeling assumptions. Thank you.
Mark Vinda (Chief Financial Officer)
Yeah, Mark. Yeah, yeah, sure. Yeah. No, we did bring down that range, Jim. I think at investor day we gave a range of 4 billion to 5 and a half billion. So 4.75 billion as the average amount of basis being capitalized for 4Q26. We brought that range down by about 200 million. So that's kind of where we expect things to fall out. Obviously things can change, but that's our best guess for now.
Jim Kamert (Equity Analyst)
Okay, Appreciate it. Thank you guys.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Thank you. Yeah. Let me just say one other thing. So Jim, one thing that we've mentioned over and over is for a variety of technologies, we call them advanced but you know, it's a broad range of technologies. There are needs for highly secure spaces, heavy floor loading capacity, very enhanced H VAC systems, etc. There's a bunch of, I think even Hale, a quarter or two kind of highlighted some of that. So we're particularly interested in that kind of an advanced technology tenant, not just a, say an office AI kind of tenant. We wouldn't really consider that in the same category. So if that's helpful.
OPERATOR
Thank you. Our next question today comes from Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Vikram Malhotra (Equity Analyst)
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess just I wanted to go back to that. 140 to 150 run rate. I know you said that was sort of our best guess, but, you know, you revised the guide now a couple of times, and I guess I'm trying to figure out like at this point, is that truly the 140 bottom? What's maybe the biggest variable in your mind that could push that 140 lower? And just to clarify, is that 140 sort of the initial run rate going into 27?
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Yeah, so I'll let Mark answer that. But I think you have to remember we give you our best judgment based on facts and circumstances as we know it at the quarter end point in time. And obviously things change a lot. I mean, imagine what happened 1Q26 when the leadership and nature of Health and Human Services changed dramatically with the appointment there last year. So you. And then tariffs came shortly thereafter. So you can only make a best judgment based on, you know, this time and space. So, you know, we'll update quarterly. But Mark, you can answer the question.
Mark Vinda (Chief Financial Officer)
Yeah. Hi, Vikram. So, yeah, cap interest is one of those drivers. That's the one that drove the number down by around 5 cents from kind of the last time we updated that number at Investor Day. I mean, in terms of, of areas that we're focused on or risk factors, I mean, the couple that come to mind is we've got to execute on the disposition plan. As Peter said, we're very focused on that and I think are feeling incrementally more confident on our ability to execute there. And then tenant wind downs can sometimes be unpredictable. That number, as I think I mentioned earlier on the call, had grown from kind of a reserve number of 23 million to something closer to 25 to 30 million. But we've continued to work through that. So those are a couple of things that we're watching closely. But the $1.45 midpoint is our best estimate at this point from what we know.
Vikram Malhotra (Equity Analyst)
Okay, great. I just wanted to touch on two, get your thoughts on two topics. One more specific, the gna, sort of given the disposition that you've embarked on for a while and now perhaps next, you know, is there simultaneously maybe a relook at gna, you know, to cut that further over the next two years? You know, both, both sort of core G and A, but also, you know, performance based. And then second, do you mind just touching on the topic of AI and square footage needs? There's a lot of debate on, you know, is the lab to office ratio changing, is the total square footage potentially changing? But any anecdotes from Your tenant base on their use of AI and what that means for future space would be helpful. Thank you.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
So maybe, Mark, do you want to take number one? And then maybe Jen and I will address two.
Mark Vinda (Chief Financial Officer)
Yeah. We've been, in terms of gna, we've obviously been focused on, you know, really managing GNA very carefully for many years. We had a big reduction last year that, you know, that had, you know, 50 plus million of savings. And we've been highlighting for a while that some of that wouldn't necessarily continue into 26, but still a meaningful improvement. Part of that has been some restructure of the comp plans. There was certainly some forfeited comp for some of the executives last year. And so look, we continue to do what's right for the organization and put people in the right positions to succeed. And so, you know, we continue to continue to make sure we got the right people on the bus. And I think we have an outstanding team. I don't know if you want to add anything else there, Joel.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Nope, I think it was good. So on AI and square footage, I think it's fair to say that, you know, I made remarks in my commentary and I would add to that we haven't seen any tenant, not to my knowledge. And I've got pretty good, you know, insight into, you know, tenants across the portfolio who've come to us and said, gee, we want to reduce because of AI, we just haven't seen that and we don't have back office space that would be highly susceptible to that. On the other hand, we haven't seen people come to us and say, gee, we're expanding because of AI and we're ready to do that generally, I mean, those. It's just too early. And I kind of laid out the experts view of this area, not, you know, Joel or Alexandria, but I think what I said in my earlier commentary rings true. But Jenna, from, you know, the ground, you know, on the ground. Thoughts, comments of what you're seeing there?
Jenna
Happy to. Hello everyone. So as Joel mentioned, we are really not seeing material changes from AI on the ground in terms of tenant demand and the specificity of which they need in terms of lab office ratios shifting at this point, we're just not seeing it. And part of the reason why is because as Joel mentioned, we are still in superbly early innings of AI's impact on drug discovery and development. Joel mentioned 37 salient cells in the human body biology is so massively complex and certainly disease pathophysiology. We just don't Understand it enough to apply an AI layer to make it completely autonomous. We're very far from that. So AI certainly cannot replace physical experimentation or validation in a lab. But what we are seeing, and we hope, because the opportunity set is so large with 10,000 diseases and only 10% addressed, many of them with not even adequate treatments, is that we hope that AI will have value in compressing timelines, increasing efficiencies and reducing costs and really recovering lost institutional knowledge. So that is kind of where we're starting to see AI take place. And some of our companies are slowly starting to incorporate AI into lab workflows in this lab in a loop type fashion where they'll generate in silico knowledge and then they will test it in biological systems within the labor. So again, as far as AI's impact, and we cannot reiterate this enough in terms of AI's impact on real estate demand and also kind of in the types of space right now, it really remains neutral. Certainly if AI really does bear the promise of allowing one company to increase the number of targeted experiments that it can run at one time, lab requirements may increase. You may have some issues where you have more distributed AI going on. We just don't know yet. But certainly we're really not seeing a shift. So we really want to get that message across today.
OPERATOR
All right, thank you. And it looks like our next question today comes from Rich Anderson at Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead.
Rich Anderson (Equity Analyst)
Good morning. I'll keep it to one question as we're getting along here. A while back someone asked, I think it was Ronald, asked about lease expiration activity in 2027. You rightfully said, you know, not even given guidance at this point, but there is, call it 55 cents of annual revenue related to that 1.5 million square feet. Is it prudent in your mind to. For us to be assuming the entirety of that $97 million gets, you know, put into a delay bucket of some sort as you, as you, you know, look to release that space? Or is there progress going to be made now in front of next year such that it may not be, you know, that draconian of event.
Mark Vinda (Chief Financial Officer)
Yeah, Mark, I'll ask you to respond. Yeah, yeah. So, yeah, if you're just talking about those expirations in a vacuum, Rich, we do expect there to be downtime on those particular spaces. Look, we're making good progress and I think we identified something like 35 or 36% of that that we've got, you know, kind of early, early negotiations on. So obviously we're going to try our best to, to beat the amount of downtime that we guided to there to try to get revenue as soon as possible. But it, but, but also, as I said, that's, you know, that also doesn't consider all the other things that, that we're focused on. Obviously we're focused on fill in vacant space today in particular, kind of some of these developments with the alternative uses Joel mentioned in trying to convert things to revenue as soon as possible elsewhere in the portfolio to make up for that. But tbd.
Rich Anderson (Equity Analyst)
Yeah. And just real quick for you, Mark, the assets that you are no longer selling that have some vacancy to them, you're holding onto them because you're seeing some leasing success. Is that a result of just the market coming towards you or is it a change of strategy for these assets, maybe bringing in tech type tenants? What has changed the narrative on those assets whereby you're thinking about holding onto them now where before you were considering selling them?
Mark Vinda (Chief Financial Officer)
Look, I can give you one example of a property that we had considered as a potential to be sold in San Diego. And Joel kind of alluded to this earlier. If there was ability to get near term revenue and put in a reasonable amount of capital, we would certainly consider that. And the asset I'm thinking about was a big asset. It was 160,000ft. And we've got somebody looking at that very closely right now. And it's a nice asset. So I mean it's really a consideration on an asset by asset basis. It wasn't like we just kind of said, okay well let's just sell, you know, less non core assets. That wasn't the case. It was really asset by asset. Those assets that needed a lot of capital or were, you know, in our minds, non core kind of, you know, not really associated with the mega campuses were definitely assets. We're continuing to look to sell if it makes sense. And in some cases when we saw good activity, we decided to pivot on those.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Okay, fair enough. Thank you very much. Yeah, another. Yeah, Rich, Another good example would be, and it's in the list, or has been in the list over time of under, you know, business and financial review, the Minuteman assets north of Boston, we signed up pretty big loi there. And so that inherently changes less capex and quicker time to delivery that then changes your calculus on what you want to do with such an asset. So it's very driven by, and in one case there's life science use, in another case it's advanced technology use. So it's not one use per se. It really depends on the market.
Rich Anderson (Equity Analyst)
Okay, thanks very much, team. Appreciate it.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Yep, thank you.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And our next question today comes from Wes Golladay at Baird. Please go ahead.
Wes Golladay (Equity Analyst)
Hey, everyone. We're now about five years past the COVID boom, where tenants were funded on weaker science, and you did call out aggressive wind down. So just curious, where are we at as far as winding down these, you know, Covid area. Covid era tenants? Are we in the later any?
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Oh, that's a. That's a hard. That's a hard question to answer, the way you framed it. I wouldn't call it Covid era tenants per se. I mean, I think. And maybe you're just referring to, you know, companies that got formed on the prospects of, you know, a really super buoyant market or something. But so many of these are really, you know, probably too much money flowed to too many deals and, you know, both public on the public and private side. So some of those naturally get wound down, you know, along the lines that you talked about. But, you know, in today's market, you know, the wind downs come from other things too. The recognition that, okay, we're going after, you know, a particular, a disease, and it turns out somebody just hit a huge milestone. We feel we can't be first in class. We're going to be a follower. And do we really want to put, if I'm a venture person, put our money into that? That's not a, you know, frontline therapy. So that's a calculus that comes into a lot of this as well, or particular, you know, issues with, you're seeing, you know, side effects or you're seeing this or that. So it's complicated. There are a lot of different reasons, not just, gee, we, you know, we went after, you know, or we just took advantage of kind of silly money during COVID times, and now we're just unwinding it. So it's more complicated than that, Joel.
Jenna
I would add one point. I would just add one thing to that. I think Joel's exactly right. It's not that there's a flushing out of COVID companies per se. It's just in a capital constraint, a continuous capital constraint environment where the cost of capital is high, boards and investors on both the public and private sides are being that much more judicious about where they're spending their capital. And if companies don't have a strong line of sight on milestones or certainly they miss those milestones, investors have to make decisions about where to allocate their capital. And so in this, that is really what is creating the decision making of we may wind down a company or we may contract in terms of capital allocation. It's not necessarily all these companies were built over Covid and now they're being flushed out.
Wes Golladay (Equity Analyst)
Okay, I appreciate that. And then you did make the comment about no leases with public biotechs, but maybe you could talk about, you know, the pipeline. Are people torn that are public biotechs and are they just a little hesitant due to the macro environment?
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Yeah, I think that's probably a 1/4 blip because I suspect we'll be back there during the second quarter with positive leasing. But it just goes to show that we've never seen that before. And as I say, that's a combination of a lot of factors, you know, that I've, that I've mentioned. But I think it's a 1/4 blip. But still the, you know, if you look at overall ARR from public biotech compared to the demand that that sector, and we've said this, you know, continually over the last couple of, you know, year quarters and years, that's the one sector that's most obviously lacking in demand. And the primary reason is they can't. Unless you have good data or a critical milestone, you can't just go to the market and do a secondary offering just to extend your cash Runway really hard to do both private and public.
Wes Golladay (Equity Analyst)
Thank you for the time.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Yep, thank you.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And our next question comes from John Kim at BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
John Kim (Equity Analyst)
Thank you. On your second quarter leasing guidance of 900 to 950,000 square feet. I was wondering how much visibility you have on that and if you can provide some commentary on how much of that is new versus renewal versus new development. And lastly, how big your leasing pipeline is overall beyond the the second quarter.
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Yeah, number one, it's not guidance. It's just an indication based on, you know, activity and transaction work. And I don't think we will give any other comments on that at the moment. We wouldn't give an indication of general direction unless we felt pretty comfortable. I'll say that sounds good. But until things are done, they're never done as you know. Right.
John Kim (Equity Analyst)
Capitalized interest, Your guidance implies $58 million run rate going forward. It looks like you are going to be capitalizing about a third less assets by the fourth quarter. So simple math kind of suggests it would be about a $46 million by way the fourth quarter. Is that math right? Is that how we should Be looking
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
at cap interest as we head into 2027. Yeah, hi, John. Yeah, we're not giving guidance for 27, but Mark will give you some framework.
Mark Vinda (Chief Financial Officer)
Yeah, yeah, that's, that's right. I mean, if you look at the basis today, it's, you know, north of 6 billion, a basis that we're capping today. And we've said, okay, we think the second half comes down because we've got some big deliveries. There's the one big delivery in San Diego, and then we've got some assets that have got some milestones that are probably going to either be put on pause or in some cases, sold some of that land. And so we gave in our supplemental, we gave what we think that basis under capitalization is going to be in the fourth quarter, which was that kind of 4.5 or 4.6 billion of basis at the midpoint of that revised range for the fourth quarter. And then we tried to give folks a sense of, well, what, you know, how much basis is out there that has milestones in 2027. Some of that is land, and we broke that out very carefully in our supplemental, some of its land. And then some of it is these kind of five assets that we've been highlighting that were, you know, we characterized it as evaluating business and financial strategy. There are some milestones related with those assets that's in the early part of 2027 that are, those are being capitalized today. The big one is 421Park. So and that'll, you know, we don't know what's going to happen there. A lot of it will just depend on the demand and how quick we can lease up that project. So that's about as best as I can frame it for you at this point.
John Kim (Equity Analyst)
Thank you.
OPERATOR
Thank you. And our next question today comes from Michael Carroll at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Michael Carroll
Thanks, Mark. I wanted to circle back on those five projects that are evaluating for a potential change in the business strategy. What are the exact options here? Is it you're going to build it for a different, different use, like advanced technologies. And if that doesn't work, then you're going to like, keep it kind of as is waiting for a better market to pursue those projects. So it's lease it as a different use or hold off until a better market. Are those the two options that you're analyzing?
Joel Marcus (Executive Chairman and Founder)
Hi, Michael. So, I mean, I think for most of these assets, it is, you know, considering whether we pivot away from a traditional lab use to some type of advanced technology. Use or other interested parties that would find the kind of the nature of those buildings very interesting for other uses other than laboratory. So that's most of the assets 311 Arsenal Street. We mentioned we've seen some activity there from those types of uses. I think we signed 80 plus thousand of lois for that 40 Sylvans similar bucket 3000 minute man. And we actually did sign a big loi for a non laboratory use there. So the potential pivot there is on most of those assets is for other types of uses. But as Joel mentioned, we could also consider these as potential sale candidates down the road.421 was the one that was a little uniquely different than the others where we could, could consider condo interests or you know, that, that, you know, that asset could, could go office I suppose. But it is intended to be a lab building. But all these assets are, you know, have, we're, you know, we've got a little bit of, a little bit of time here, but we're running up on milestones where we would need to make decisions or you know, capitalized interest would, would turn off. And those, those milestones are coming up on average kind of early part of next year.
Michael Carroll
And then if you do change the scope of those specific development projects, I mean could that impact your construction budget in 2026 or is that really the $500 million I think that was highlighted in the supplemental? Is that more of a 27 beyond impact? Just because the investments for these other types of uses would be smaller investments versus life science? Yeah, I think we have a good handle on this year's capital plan, Michael. It would really be more of an item that could impact spending for next year. Great, thanks. Thank you. And our next question today comes from Dylan Brzezinski with Green Street. Please go ahead. Hi guys. Thanks for taking the question and appreciate the commentary so far on sort of the 97 million of vacates in 2027. I guess what we're trying to figure out is it looks like excluding that amount, there's called another 1.536 million square feet of lease explorations. Do you guys sort of have a good handle on that? Is that those likely to renew? I guess what we're trying to figure out is like the likelihood of probability of that 97.5 million moving higher as we get closer to 27. Yeah. Hi Dylan. Yeah, it's just a little bit too early to tell on what happens with the rest of the expirations for 2027. What we do know now is that that 1.5 for the 97 million of rent you referenced that those, those may have or are likely to have some downtime. So it's really hard to predict at this point what the retention rate looks on, on the balance, I can tell you, at least for this year, we're, you know, I think at the beginning of the year, at least for 20, 26 expirations. When we carved out the kind of the key lease expirations for 26, we thought we would be somewhere in the 60 to plus percent retention rate. But I really don't think we're prepared to comment on where 27 is. That's fair. And maybe just appreciate the color on sort of the potential amount of leasing activity that you guys think you'll get done in Q2. I guess as we sort of think about beyond that, is that sort of a good call it, you know, three and a half, four million square feet of annualized leasing volume a good amount to sort of use as a run rate or, and obviously leasing is going to ebb and flow. But just sort of curious how we should sort of, sort of think about the pipeline beyond the next quarter. I don't, I don't think you should assume that that is a run rate. I think we're in a different time now. So I think the run rate will evolve over time, especially given a more life science advanced technology mix, given the assets. So I, you know, I don't think you could use that immediately. But I mean, historically, give or take some amount on either side, a million has been a common run rate rate over time. Whether we get back to that as a run rate, I think time will tell. Thanks, Ed. Thank you. And our final question today comes from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Thanks for taking the question and congrats on getting to the end of the call. I just wanted to take the latest temperature on opportunistic capital. Looking at the space from the real estate perspective, I think you had mentioned JV is looking a little more interesting. Has anything changed or can you give us the update on whether it's global capital, whether it's domestic capital? There's a lot shifting around there in terms of capital needs across the globe. What's the latest state of affairs in terms of opportunistic buyers into life science? I don't think we want to comment really too much on that, but Peter, you can. Yeah, I would say that it's a combination of both domestic and international capital that is looking at these assets. Would you say the appetite has changed or it's pretty much the same. What has changed is over the last two years, up until this year, there was really no money looking at core. It was all opportunistic and for the right reasons. I mean we were coming, we were hopefully bottoming out in the real estate industry and everybody was raising money based on double digit IRRs. And that's what those funds targets were and that's what they had to invest in. Now we have money. How it came about I don't know, but we have folks that are saying, hey, I want good quality SAF assets and I know I can get a real estate deal that will provide a spread over bonds that I like for the risk that I'm going to take. And so now that that money is there, and as I said, it comes both domestically and internationally, we're leveraging that to get a better cost of capital overall for our program. All right, great. Thank you. Thank you. And that concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Joel Marcus for any closing remarks. Yep. Thank you, operator. And thank you everybody. We appreciate it. Thank you. That concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.
Disclaimer: This transcript is provided for informational purposes only. While we strive for accuracy, there may be errors or omissions in this automated transcription. For official company statements and financial information, please refer to the company's SEC filings and official press releases. Corporate participants' and analysts' statements reflect their views as of the date of this call and are subject to change without notice.
Login to comment