The S&P 500 fell 0.49% on Tuesday to close at 7,138.80, pulling back from record highs as investors took profits ahead of a pivotal day for megacap earnings and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is leaning bullish heading into Wednesday, with the April 29 market showing 61% odds of an "Up" open for the benchmark index.
Why That Number Matters
Wednesday could test whether the recent rally has more room to run.
Investors are bracing for results from four of the "Magnificent Seven" after the close — Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) — with markets looking for signs that heavy AI-related spending is translating into growth.
The other major catalyst is the Federal Reserve's policy decision later Wednesday, likely the last under Chair Jerome Powell, with markets broadly expecting rates to remain unchanged.
Tuesday's pullback was driven partly by pressure in tech after a report raised questions about growth at OpenAI, hitting sentiment around AI-linked stocks including Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).
Oil prices also moved higher again, keeping geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz in focus.
The Bull Case
Futures were unchanged in early trading, with S&P 500 futures down 0.01%, suggesting investors may be positioning for surprises from earnings or a supportive Fed message.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Tuesday at 7,133.74, below the prior close of 7,173.91, meaning the April 28 Polymarket bet resolved "Down," with traders correctly calling a weaker open on roughly $70,000 in traded volume.
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