Investors are bracing for arguably one of the most pivotal days of earnings season on Wednesday, with four of the “Magnificent Seven” giants set to report after market close. Activity on prediction markets, consequently, has intensified.
Who’s Beating Earnings?
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) are in the spotlight.
The combined valuation of these technology giants was nearly $12 trillion as of this writing, reflecting their strong ability to sway markets.
Unsurprisingly, punters were placing large bets on the earnings outcome.
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polyamarket assigned a 96% probability that Amazon will surpass its first quarter earnings expectations, beating the consensus EPS estimate of $1.65.
Market optimism extended to other firms, as Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet carried earnings beat probabilities of 94%, 92%, and 96%, respectively, at the time of writing.
What Will Executives Say During Call?
The word-mention market was also buzzing with activity. On Kalshi, traders priced in a 95% chance that an Amazon executive mentions "Live Sports" during the earnings call, followed by "Alexa" and "Tariff" at 94% each.
Similarly, markets assigned roughly 90% odds to Alphabet executives referencing both "Gemini 3" and "Wiz" during their earnings call.
"Threads" and "Cloud" carried overwhelming odds of being mentioned in Meta's earnings call, at 97% and 95%, respectively, while "Gaming" and "LinkedIn" led the word-mention bets for Microsoft.
A Rapidly Gaining Segment
Companies are increasingly capitalizing on Big Tech earnings hype, using predictions to draw in retail interest.
Cryptocurrency exchange Bitget launched a promotion inviting users to “Predict MAG7 earnings result” for a chance to win $1,000 in Tether (CRYPTO: USDT) by predicting the results of the aforementioned companies.
Zcash (CRYPTO: ZEC) jumped 22% in the last 24 hours, and over 40% in a week.
Price Action: The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (BATS:MAGS), which offers equal-weight exposure to the "Mag 7" stocks, is down 0.57% pre-market after closing 0.33% lower at $66.86 during Tuesday's regular trading session
The stock continues to exhibit strength across multiple timeframes, backed by a moderately high Momentum score in Benzinga's Edge rankings.
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