Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) reports first-quarter earnings after the bell today.

The company has beaten revenue estimates in six straight quarters and topped EPS estimates in nine of the last 10. Shares closed Tuesday near $264, just below last week’s all-time high.

Polymarket gives Amazon a 94% chance of beating its $1.65 GAAP EPS consensus.

The more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which specific words Andy Jassy will say on the call.

What Words Does Kalshi Predict?

“Tariff” sits at 96%. Trump’s original tariffs were struck down in February and replaced with a temporary 15% import tariff that expires this summer.

Amazon’s pre-tariff inventory cushion ran out last fall; tonight’s call should tell us how much the price hikes are biting.

“Live Sports” is also at 96%. Prime Video just wrapped its biggest-ever Thursday Night Football season at 15.3 million average viewers and added NBA playoff games this month.

Sports is the highest-attention ad inventory Amazon owns, and the ad business now runs at an $80 billion run rate.

“Alexa+” sits at 94%. The original Alexa lost money for a decade, Alexa+ is the version that’s supposed to fix that.

“Silicon” at 94% and “Data Center” at 92% are the same trade. Amazon is spending $200 billion this year building AI infrastructure around its own Trainium chips, and both Anthropic and OpenAI have signed up.

A revenue number on Trainium tonight would be the clearest sign yet that Amazon’s custom chips are a real business, not just an internal cost-saver.

“OpenAI” sits at 90%.

Yesterday, AWS announced it will start selling OpenAI’s models after Microsoft dropped exclusivity.

Both OpenAI and Anthropic have now committed tens of billions to AWS and to running on Amazon’s Trainium chips, the win Jassy will pitch tonight.

“Rufus” is at 92%. Amazon’s AI shopping assistant is on pace for $10 billion in incremental sales across 250 million users. Auto-buy launched in November, so this is the first full quarter of AI agents executing purchases.

“China” sits at 35%, low for a tariff-exposed business.

Chinese sellers drive a chunk of third-party GMV, and PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD)-owned Temu is eating low-end retail share. Traders are betting Jassy avoids the topic.

“Project Kuiper” sits at 17%. Amazon rebranded its satellite business as Amazon Leo back in November, but it appears Kalshi never got that memo.

Reading The Board

Traders expect Jassy to sell AWS AI capacity, address tariffs, and pitch Alexa+ as the killer Prime benefit. They don’t expect China, drones, or the old satellite business.

Mizuho’s Lloyd Walmsley raised his price target to a Street-high $325 yesterday, citing AWS chip momentum and the new OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta deals.

The call is at 5:30 p.m. ET.

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