JP Morgan analyst Kenneth B. Worthington said Robinhood Markets, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:HOOD) first-quarter results fell short of expectations due to weaker revenue trends, while he lowered forecasts and trimmed his price forecast amid concerns about the durability of certain income streams.

Earnings Miss Driven By Revenue Weakness

Worthington noted that Robinhood reported first-quarter 2026 EPS of 38 cents, below the 43 cents consensus, as total revenue of $1.07 billion missed expectations of $1.14 billion. He attributed the shortfall to weaker transaction revenue and net interest revenue.

He highlighted pressure on transaction revenue, which came in at $623 million versus expectations of $661 million, as take rates declined across options and crypto.

He said options revenue fell short due to lower per-contract pricing, while crypto take rates also declined amid competitive pressure. Net interest revenue of $359 million also missed estimates, reflecting weaker securities lending activity in a softer IPO environment.

Costs, Deposits And Growth Trends

Worthington said Robinhood kept expenses well under control in the quarter, with adjusted operating expenses below prior guidance. However, the company raised its full-year expense outlook to account for investments tied to new initiatives, such as Trump Accounts.

He pointed to net deposits as a bright spot, with inflows of $17.7 billion exceeding expectations and tracking near the company’s 20% annual growth target. He added that April trends improved, with strong equity and options trading volumes and continued deposit growth.

Outlook And Revised Projections

Worthington lowered his fiscal 2026 estimates but expects asset growth to accelerate in fiscal 2027 as newer businesses scale. He now models fiscal 2026 adjusted operating expenses at $2.8 billion, with spending rising in the second half of the year.

On Wednesday, he maintained a Neutral rating but reduced his December 2026 price forecast to $89 from $92, reflecting a lower valuation multiple of 35x due to less durable net interest revenue.

He added that Robinhood is also exploring AI-driven products, with management indicating potential rollout of agentic brokerage features as part of its product roadmap.

“Our Neutral rating is unchanged, but our Dec-2026 price target falls to $89 from $92 as we lower our valuation multiple to 35x due to less durable net interest revenue as evidenced by the prior two quarterly prints,” the analyst said in a note on Wednesday.

Robinhood Technical Analysis

Robinhood is sitting in the lower half of its 52-week range ($45.56 to $153.86), which is consistent with a longer, choppy downtrend since the prior peak. The stock is trading 10.5% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 24.4% below its 100-day SMA, a setup that leans bearish for trend followers because rallies have struggled to stick.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a trend/momentum measure, is still above its signal line with a positive histogram, which hints that downside pressure may be more "shock-like" than a clean trend breakdown. In everyday terms, MACD being above the signal line means momentum hasn't fully rolled over even as price weakens.

The death cross in February (the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA) remains an overhang, and it often acts like a headwind where rebounds fade faster than traders expect. That longer-term backdrop helps explain why dips can accelerate when the stock loses short-term support.

  • Key Resistance: $78.00 — a level where rebounds have recently stalled.
  • Key Support: $63.50 — an area where buyers have tended to show up.

Robinhood Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions

The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $113.06. Recent analyst moves include:

  • Citizens: Market Outperform (Maintains Target to $155.00) (April 29)
  • Cantor Fitzgerald: Overweight (Maintains Target to $110.00) (April 29)
  • Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Market Perform (Lowers Target to $65.00) (April 29)

Robinhood Price Action

HOOD Price Action: Robinhood Markets shares were down 14.12% at $70.48 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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