Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports fiscal Q2 earnings after the bell today.

The company has a habit of routinely beating earnings estimates, which explains the 94% chance Polymarket gives it of beating the $1.94 GAAP EPS consensus.

The more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which specific words Tim Cook and his team will say on the call, his last quarterly call as CEO before John Ternus takes over on September 1.

What Kalshi Predicts

“China” at 98%. “Manufacturing” at 96%.

Apple’s iPhone business in China collapsed through 2024 as Huawei’s premium phones took share.

It came roaring back this winter, with shipments up roughly 20% in calendar Q1. Investors want to know whether the recovery holds, and whether Cook’s two-year pivot of production to India is far enough along to insulate Apple from the next round of China tension.

“Tariff” at 96%. Apple absorbed $1.4 billion in tariff costs last quarter.

The Supreme Court has since struck down the broader Trump tariff regime, but the administration is already pursuing new tariff authorities. Cook will be asked what the next round costs.

“Wearable” at 95%. Vision Pro production has been halted, marketing spend cut over 95%, and total sales since launch reportedly stand under 600,000 units.

The cheaper “Vision Air” was scrapped in favor of smart glasses now expected late 2026. Cook will be asked what comes next for the segment.

“Siri” at 90%. Apple promised a major Siri overhaul at WWDC 2024, delayed it indefinitely, and in January announced Google’s Gemini would power it, a multi-year deal worth approximately $1 billion per year.

Apple is now the only major tech company outsourcing its core AI to a direct competitor.

“F1” at 89%. Apple’s five-year, ~$750 million deal to be Formula 1’s exclusive U.S. broadcaster started this quarter. It builds on the F1 movie that became Apple’s largest film at $630 million in global box office.

“Apple Pay” at 72%. Services are expected to land near $30 billion this quarter, Apple’s highest-margin business and the one Wall Street most wants growth from.

Reading The Board

“Gemini” at 37%. Cook uses “Apple Intelligence” as the umbrella term on earnings calls and rarely names Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) or other AI partners by name. A mention would signal something has changed.

“Modem” at 32%. Apple’s C1 modem chip launched in the iPhone 16e last year, beginning the transition away from Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM). A mention could signal progress on the broader rollout.

Wall Street is reading this as Cook’s farewell call, the last chance to set up John Ternus before the September transition.

AAPL is trading near $270, within 7% of its all-time high.

The call is at 5:00 p.m. ET.

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