Contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (NYSE:TSM) is ramping up investment and capacity expansion to meet surging AI demand, even as executives and analysts warn that supply constraints and rising competition could persist for years.

Aggressive Spending And Capacity Expansion

Taiwan Semiconductor said it plans to spend nearly $56 billion this year to expand production capacity for AI customers such as NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (NASDAQ:AMD), and Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL).

CEO C.C. Wei emphasized that building new fabs takes years, noting that it requires 2 to 3 years for construction and another 1 to 2 years to ramp production, EE Times reported on Thursday.

The company is accelerating construction of new 3-nanometer fabs in Taiwan, the U.S., and Japan, with production timelines stretching from 2027 to 2028.

It is also expanding 3-nanometer capacity for the first time, citing strong demand across smartphones, AI, automotive, and IoT.

Taiwan Semiconductor began producing 2-nanometer chips in late 2025, maintaining its lead in advanced nodes.

Competitive Landscape And Market Position

Industry experts said Taiwan Semiconductor remains the technology and market leader but faces intensifying competition.

International Business Strategies CEO Handel Jones said Samsung Electronics Co, Ltd (OTC:SSNLF) has improved significantly and is becoming competitive in 2-nanometer technology, supported by scale and strong memory profits.

Jones expects Samsung to expand capacity in both the U.S. and South Korea.

At the same time, SemiAnalysis analyst Sravan Kundojjala said Taiwan Semiconductor still holds a multi-year yield lead and continues to widen its foundry market share.

He added that competitors are unlikely to reclaim meaningful share before 2028.

Supply Constraints And Long-Term Outlook

Analysts said supply shortages will likely persist despite Taiwan Semiconductor's expansion.

Jones projected that demand for 2-nanometer and below could reach 400,000 to 450,000 wafers per month by 2030, exceeding expected capacity.

Kundojjala pointed to equipment constraints, particularly the limited supply of EUV tools, as a key bottleneck through 2027.

Taiwan Semiconductor is also investing in advanced packaging technologies such as CoPoS to support AI workloads, while planning to introduce its next-generation A14 node in 2028.

Wei acknowledged ongoing competition but emphasized that leadership in technology, manufacturing, and customer trust remains critical as Taiwan Semiconductor continues to scale to meet long-term AI demand.

Technical Analysis

TSM is still trading near the upper end of its 52-week range ($161.75 low to $414.50 high), consistent with a longer-term uptrend remaining in control. The stock is trading 4.5% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 14% above its 100-day SMA, suggesting short-term dips are occurring within a stronger intermediate trend.

The moving average structure remains constructive, with the 20-day SMA above the 50-day SMA and a golden cross that occurred in June 2025, a backdrop that typically aligns with trend-following demand. The next test is whether price can cleanly reclaim the $390.00 area after failing to extend past nearby resistance.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a trend/momentum indicator, is above its signal line, with a positive histogram, which still favors momentum and buyers despite today's red tape. In everyday terms, MACD being above the signal line means upside pressure has been stronger than downside pressure lately, even if the stock is pausing.

  • Key Resistance: $390.00 — where recent rallies have stalled, and sellers have shown up.
  • Key Support: $360.50 — an area buyers have defended when pullbacks deepen.

TSM Price Action: Taiwan Semiconductor shares were down 0.44% at $392.08 at the time of publication on Thursday. The stock is approaching its 52-week high of $414.50, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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