Oil prices maintained their upward momentum on Friday as the White House leveraged the recently announced ceasefire to avoid a congressional 60-day deadline, under the 1973 law, for the Iran war. This pushed the crude oil futures higher amid tight supply fears.
Geopolitics Keep Markets On Edge
The Donald Trump administration argued that a three-week-old ceasefire effectively “terminated” hostilities, halting the 60-day clock under the War Powers Resolution.
By avoiding the looming May 1 deadline for troop withdrawal or congressional approval, the White House introduced a new layer of uncertainty. Despite this technical pause, geopolitical risks persist.
July Brent futures climbed to $111.13, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for June reached $105.25. Tensions remain elevated as the U.S. blockade on Iran holds, and Tehran continues to refuse to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
A ‘Higher-For-Longer’ Reality
While the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could eventually pressure prices lower, market experts note that underlying supply conditions remain exceptionally tight.
Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist for LPL Financial, told Benzinga that a striking divergence between broad equity market optimism and commodity realities.
“The physical oil market continues to reflect the risk of a ‘higher-for-longer’ regime,” Turnquist noted, indicating that immediate supply constraints are currently overriding hopes of a swift Middle East resolution.
Navigating ‘Extreme Greed’
With the Brent contract for June recently hitting a volatile four-year high of $126 before retreating, rapid price swings remain the defining feature of global energy markets.
Sean Peche, Portfolio Manager at Ranmore Fund Management, cautioned investors against reacting to unpredictable daily developments. “Not even Trump knows what he's going to do. We're not trying to guess what everybody else is going to do or trade around headlines,” Peche told Benzinga.
Warning that global market sentiment has rapidly shifted from “extreme fear to almost extreme greed,” Peche emphasized the critical importance of discipline. “The way to survive these crises is to be diversified and take a longer-term view,” he advised.
Brent And WTI Trackers Surge Over The Past Month
Despite the three-week-long ceasefire, the Brent Crude Oil futures and WTI Crude Oil future tracker, United States Brent Oil Fund, LP (NYSE:BNO) and United States Oil Fund, LP (NYSE:USO), advanced 8.41% and 13.29% in the month of April, respectively.
BNO was up 105.22% YTD, whereas USO gained 110.91%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices have turned positive for the year with the gains of 5.11% and 7.13%, respectively.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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