The S&P 500, which is tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), continues to hit new all-time highs in 2026. A market expert says there could be more highs ahead for the rest of 2026 based on a historical trend just set in the first four months of the year.
S&P 500 Up 5.3% Through April
Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick is able to tune out the countless negative headlines, which means he's likely not surprised that the S&P 500 was up 5.3% year-to-date through the month of April, despite what is happening in the Middle East.
In a recent interview with Benzinga, Detrick shared his thoughts on headlines, politics and more as he navigates market trends to help make the best return for the Carson Group clients.
Detrick has good news for investors based on historical trends.
In a new tweet, Detrick shares that in 23 of the past 25 years, when the S&P 500 gained over 5% from January through April, the rest of the year traded higher.
"This is another clue this bull market likely has a few more tricks up his sleeves in 2026," Detrick tweeted.
The S&P 500 has averaged gains of +8.8% for the rest of the year over the last 25 years, with the January through April period posting gains of more than 5%.
The lone exceptions to the trend were 1987 (-14.3%) and 2011 (-7.8%).
Over the past 25 years, the average return for the month of May was 0.5%.
What Recent History Shows
Here are the most recent five years during which this S&P 500 trend happened:
| Year | Jan. through April Return | May Return | Rest of Year (May through Dec.) |
| 2024 | +5.6% | +4.8% | +16.8% |
| 2023 | +8.6% | +0.2% | +14.4% |
| 2021 | +11.3% | +0.5% | +14.0% |
| 2019 | +17.5% | -6.6% | +9.7% |
| 2017 | +6.5% | +1.2% | +12.1% |
Each of the last five years in which the S&P 500 gained 5% or more saw a positive gain for the rest of the year, with gains of 9.7% or more each year. Of the five years, only 2019 saw the S&P 500 trade lower in the month of May.
The historical trends could point to gains of around 10% or more for the rest of 2026. This would mean full-year gains of around 15%, which is in line with Carson Group's expectations of gains of 12% to 15% at the start of the year.
SPY Price Action: State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust shares were up 0.56% at $722.70 at the time of publication Friday, according to Benzinga Pro.
Photo: Gorodenkoff / Shutterstock.com
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