Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) reports first-quarter earnings after the bell today.

Palantir has routinely beaten earnings estimates, which explains the 96% chance Polymarket gives it of topping the $0.28 non-GAAP consensus.

The more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words Alex Karp will say on the 5:00 p.m. ET call.

What Kalshi Predicts

“Foundry” is at 99%. Foundry is Palantir’s commercial data and analytics platform, the software that paying enterprise customers actually use.

“Warp Speed” is at 93%. Warp Speed is Palantir’s manufacturing operating system, with a cohort that now spans Anduril Industries, L3Harris Technologies Inc. (NYSE:LHX), Shield AI, Saronic and Epirus.

It is the centerpiece of Palantir’s reindustrialization pitch and a recurring Karp set piece.

“USDA” is at 80%. Palantir signed a $300 million blanket purchase agreement with the Department of Agriculture on April 22 to implement the “One Farmer, One File” program. Fresh, named, and exactly the kind of contract Karp likes to point at as evidence that Washington has made Palantir the default operating system for federal data work.

“Lethal” is at 69%. Karp’s signature framing for Palantir’s defense work, deployed in full at AIPCon 9 last month.

The Maven Smart System, the contract that monetizes the rhetoric, is on track to become an official Pentagon program of record.

“Iran / Iranian” is at 64%. Karp told the AIPCon crowd that “what makes America special right now is our lethal capabilities, our ability to fight war,” with the Middle East as the live example.

“Israel” is at 49%. Karp has been one of the most outspoken U.S. tech CEOs on Israel, but earnings calls are not foreign-policy speeches, which is how the market lands at a coin flip.

Below 50%

“Stellantis” is at 30%. Stellantis NV (NYSE:STLA) is one of Palantir’s largest commercial customers, and renewed and expanded the partnership for another five years in March, adding AIP on top of a Foundry deployment that dates to 2016.

It is exactly the land-and-expand commercial proof point Karp tends to call out.

“Nvidia” is at 31%. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Palantir launched a sovereign AI operating system reference architecture in March on top of October’s GTC tie-up, but the framing is Palantir running inside Nvidia’s stack rather than the other way around, which makes a Karp callout less automatic.

What To Watch

PLTR is trading around $146, down roughly 15% year to date, but up over 5% today.

The number the bears actually care about is U.S. commercial revenue growth, where management has guided 115% for the year.

Michael Burry is short PLTR on the argument that the company is overpromising on military AI without real software of its own. Anything softer than the guide could hand him an earnings-day vindication.

The call is at 5:00 p.m. ET.

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