Shares of Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) tanked on Friday following a mixed first-quarter (Q1) report, but one analyst remains bullish.
The oil company’s core upstream and downstream profit engines are “restored to full operating rates," according to JPMorgan.
The Chevron Analyst: Analyst Arun Jayaram reiterated an Overweight rating, while raising the price target from $216 to $224.
He noted the company’s strong foundation for earnings growth for the rest of 2026, given elevated commodity prices.
The Chevron Thesis: The company's core profit engines are "finally firing on all cylinders," carrying strong operational momentum into the second quarter, Jayaram said in the note.
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He noted that:
- Chevron's US production exceeded 2 MMBoe/d (million barrels of oil equivalent per day)
- Gorgon and Wheatstone (two of Chevron's massive liquefied natural gas, or LNG, projects in Western Australia) are operating at full rate
- Leviathan and Tamar (major offshore natural gas reservoirs in the Mediterranean Sea) are also operating at full rate
- TCO (a huge oilfield in which Chevron has a 50% stake) is running above 1 MMBoe/d
- Chevron's US refining system is running at record throughput levels
Despite the volatile macro environment, management reiterated their 2026 guidance across all key metrics, including capital spending of $18-$19 billion and production growth of 7%-10%, the analyst stated.
Chevron is on track to meet its structural cost reduction target of $3-$4 billion by year-end. This gives confidence in its 2030 targets, Jayaram added.
Total shareholder returns hover around $27.5 billion in 2026. That includes $14 billion in dividends and $13.6 billion of share repurchases.
He raised the earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 from $15.44 per share to $18.07 per share and from $11.84 per share to $13.17 per share, respectively.
CVX Price Action: Shares of Chevron had declined by 0.14% to $190.36 at the time of publication on Monday.
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