Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) posted a blockbuster Q1 last week, and the stock responded by closing out its best month since October 2004.

That has put Alphabet within $230 billion of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) for the title of the world’s largest company, with prediction market traders now pricing a real chance the crown changes hands by June.

CEO Sundar Pichai told investors the company’s edge over rivals is that it “owns the silicon.”

Pichai’s Full-Stack Pitch

On the April 29 Q1 earnings call, Pichai said, “The fact that we own frontier models and own the silicon really helps us stay ahead of the curve.” He added that Alphabet’s AI investments are “lighting up every part of the business.”

The quarter delivered 22% revenue growth, 63% Google Cloud expansion, and 81% net income growth. Wall Street responded with a string of price target hikes, with Goldman Sachs writing that the AI risk narrative has “almost entirely flipped.”

Google Cloud has also started selling its custom Tensor Processing Units to a select group of customers for installation in their own data centers, putting Alphabet directly into Nvidia’s hardware lane for the first time.

What Polymarket Is Pricing

Polymarket’s most active market on the question, “Largest Company end of June?,” has drawn $9.6 million in trading volume. Nvidia is priced at 70% to hold the crown, with Alphabet at 28%. Nvidia has slipped from over 93% late last month.

Polymarket traders think there is a 27% chance Google has the best AI model on the market by the end of June. Anthropic is in first with 63%, with OpenAI trailing with 8%.

Options traders are pricing a 53% chance Alphabet’s stock touches Nvidia’s current market cap before May 15, according to ThinkOrSwim data.

The Catalysts Coming

Nvidia stock fell more than 6% in the two days following a report that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user growth targets, raising questions about whether AI chip demand can hold its current pace.

Google I/O runs May 19 to 20, where Pichai is expected to showcase new Gemini upgrades and the latest TPU chip generation. Nvidia’s fiscal Q1 results follow on May 20.

The Nvidia bull case isn’t dead, though. Chinese tech firms are paying roughly $1 million per Nvidia B300 server as domestic AI demand surges, with Chinese AI models now accounting for 32% of global token usage versus 5% a year ago.

Nvidia stock was trading at $197 at the time of writing. Alphabet shares were trading at $389.

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