McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD) could see weaker visits in the first quarter, sending shares even lower when the fast-food company reports quarterly results before market opens on Thursday.
Here are the earning estimates, analyst ratings and key items to watch.
McDonald's Q1 Earnings Estimates
Analysts expect McDonald's to report Q1 revenue of $6.47 billion. That’s up from $5.96 billion in last year's Q1, according to Benzinga Pro.
The company beat analyst estimates for revenue in five of the last 10 quarters. That includes the most recently reported fourth quarter.
Analysts also expect McDonald's to report Q1 earnings per share of $2.75, up from $2.67 in last year's Q1. The company beat analyst estimates for earnings per share in seven of the last 10 quarters overall, including Q4.
McDonald's Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
Here are some of the recent analyst ratings on McDonald's and their price targets:
- BTIG: Reiterated Buy rating, with price target of $370
- Morgan Stanley: Maintained Equal-Weight rating, lowered price target from $335 to $334
- KeyBanc: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $354 to $345
Key Items to Watch
The year, thus far, has been the best of times and worst of times for McDonald's stock. Shares of the restaurant company hit all-time highs after reporting fourth-quarter results in February.
After that rally, shares fell and are now down 16.5% from those February highs. On Tuesday, the stock hit levels not seen since January 2025, hitting new 52-week lows of $283.02.
The bad news for investors is that the rally after Q4 results was driven by strong visit growth and financials, which might not happen in the first-quarter results.
Data from Placer.ai shows visits to McDonald's were up just 0.6% year-over-year in Q1. Compare that to the 5.3% year-over-year growth it reported in Q4. The company reported strong guest counts and sales growth globally for the fourth quarter.
The Placer.ai report shows same-store visits were down in January and March and up in February. A KPop Demon Hunters promotion helped with traffic in the month of March, but might not be enough to have the same share pop as the fourth quarter results provided.
The report from McDonald's could be a key indicator of consumer health and how much consumers are eating out at fast food restaurants compared to other months.
A new $3 menu was rolled out in April by McDonald's. While that launch will be part of second-quarter results, the company could share how the launch went and give a sense of if the menu changes is helping bring in more customers and/or helping with visitor frequency.
A big stock reaction by McDonald's stock could put pressure on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with the restaurant company the 12th largest holding in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) at 3.57% of assets.
McDonald's stock may have fallen out of favor with investors after recent years of pressure. The stock was up for seven straight years from 2015 through 2021. Since then the stock has been up or down each year with no two consecutive years of gains or losses. The stock was up 5.4% in 2025, giving 2026 another chance to reverse the recent trend and post two years of share gains for the first time in five years.
McDonald's Stock Price Action
McDonald's stock is up 0.4% to $285.20 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $283.02 to $341.75. The stock is down 6% year-to-date in 2026, with shares down around 10% over the last 52 weeks.
Image via Shutterstock
Login to comment