Ryan Cohen’s GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME) has proposed a $55.5 billion takeover of online marketplace eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY), but prediction market traders aren’t buying the CEO’s “We’ll see what happens” pitch.

The $125-per-share cash-and-stock offer represents a 46% premium to eBay’s Feb. 4 close, the day GameStop began building its 5% stake.

GameStop has a $20 billion “highly confident letter” from TD Securities, though that falls short of fully committed financing.

Polymarket Pegs Long Odds On The Deal

Polymarket traders are giving the deal just a 16% chance of closing on its “Will GameStop acquire eBay?” market.

Kalshi sits a touch higher at roughly 20%.

The skepticism reflects basic arithmetic.

GameStop’s roughly $12 billion market cap is less than a quarter of eBay’s $46 billion valuation, raising questions about the dilution required to fund the stock half of the offer.

Cohen sidestepped financing questions on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Monday, telling host Becky Quick “I don’t understand your question” when pressed on the funding gap, then directing her to the company website.

Big Numbers, Bigger Doubts

GameStop’s pitch deck claims the combined company could deliver $2 billion in annualized cost reductions within twelve months and lift GAAP EPS from $4.26 to $7.79 in year one.

Cohen has framed the deal as a path to a “legit competitor” to Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN).

Public markets were less convinced. GME shares fell nearly 8% Monday while EBAY jumped more than 5.5%, a classic acquirer-target spread that may suggest the Street views the bid as expensive for GameStop holders.

What Comes Next For The Apes

eBay’s board confirmed receipt of the proposal Monday, telling shareholders no action is required while it reviews the bid with its advisors. The board flagged the value of GameStop’s stock consideration and questioned “the ability of GameStop to deliver a binding, actionable proposal.”

That last point is the same financing skepticism baked into Polymarket’s 16%. Traders are now watching for a formal board recommendation, a potential proxy fight, and a Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust filing.

Retail chatter ran hot on Stocktwits, where the platform’s sentiment gauge flipped to its most bullish reading on EBAY shortly after the bid was announced, with one user calling for the stock to be “bid up to around $150.”

Whether Cohen’s apes can drag the deal across the line may depend on how quickly the financing math sharpens.

Image: Shutterstock