Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:HOOD) CEO Vlad Tenev rarely agrees with Gary Gensler, but this week he conceded the former SEC chair may have a fair point on sports prediction markets.

Gensler recently argued that when Congress updated CFTC statutes, no senator ever discussed sports applications. State-level objections likely would have stalled the legislation, he said.

Asked on CNBC about that argument, Tenev largely agreed.

“I don’t disagree, and maybe the law should be updated,” Tenev said, while pointing out that sports has become a much bigger chunk of the economy than it was 20 years ago.

Why The Concession Matters For HOOD

Robinhood has tied much of its 2026 growth narrative to prediction market expansion, with Tenev framing the platform as a “financial super app” spanning every asset class. Sports event contracts are a core piece of that thesis.

Tenev argued sports is one of the few human domains safe from AI automation, saying viewers “don’t want to watch self-driving cars racing around the track.”

Polymarket traders are pricing the legislative threat as low.

A market on whether a law banning sports prediction markets is enacted in 2026 currently sits at 18%.

The concession arrives as Kalshi continues to fight a wave of state-level legal challenges over its sports markets, and as the CFTC itself signals the issue could land at the Supreme Court.

“I do see this potentially going to the Supreme Court. We may have a split in the circuits,” CFTC Chair Mike Selig said at the Milken Conference this week.

A separate Polymarket contract on whether SCOTUS accepts a sports event contract case by July 31 currently trades at 5%, and by the end of the year at 26%.

Tenev Pushes Back On Retail Loser Studies

Tenev pushed back on recent academic work suggesting a small cohort of traders accounts for most prediction market winnings while retail users are net losers. He said derivatives data can be sliced many ways, and that hedging activity is hard to isolate from the outside.

He flagged a shift in retail behavior, with users increasingly building algorithmic strategies using AI tools like Claude and Codex.

“Right now you have to be like a quant or an engineer to do this, but can we make it so that everyone can have access to this powerful technology?” Tenev said.

Tenev also rejected Warren Buffett‘s recent “casino” framing of speculative trading, telling CNBC that Robinhood’s customer base ranges from systematic, sophisticated traders to fans betting on a favorite team.

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