Lyft Inc. (NASDAQ:LYFT) reports fiscal Q1 earnings after the bell today.

CEO David Risher told investors after Q4 that “2026 will be the year of the AV” for Lyft, with deployments planned in the U.S. and overseas. Tonight’s call is the first chance for him to back that up.

Polymarket gives an 84% chance Lyft reports more than 240 million rides for the quarter.

The more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words Risher and his team will say on the 5 p.m. ET call.

What Words Kalshi Is Predicting

“FreeNow” sits at 96%. Lyft closed its acquisition of the European mobility platform last July, the largest expansion in company history, adding around €1 billion in annualized gross bookings.

“Waymo” is at 87%. Lyft’s Flexdrive subsidiary began managing Waymo’s robotaxi fleet in Nashville last month, the first commercial rollout where Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) units appear inside the Lyft app.

“Safety” sits at 63%. With May Mobility AVs live in Atlanta, Waymo robotaxis live in Nashville, and Holon shuttles due to launch later this year, Lyft has more autonomous miles on its network than at any point in its history. A Risher mention would signal management is getting ahead of incident risk rather than reacting to one.

“Competition” at 58%. Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) is spending roughly $100 million on its own fleet-management hubs to directly challenge Flexdrive.

“Mobileye” sits at 44%. Mobileye Global Inc. (NASDAQ:MBLY) is set to deploy its first Lyft-network robovans in Dallas this year, and the Holon shuttles Lyft is bringing online late-2026 also run on Mobileye Drive. A mention from Risher could signal which deployment is closer to going live than the others.

“Oil / Gas / Gasoline” at 50%. Lyft launched a driver fuel relief program in March after U.S. pump prices climbed past $3.97 per gallon on Iran-conflict-driven energy disruptions. As the war in Iran continues, Risher addressing this directly could signal margin pressure on driver supply.

“Membership” at 19%. Uber said in its Q1 release Tuesday that Uber One has crossed 50 million members and now drives half of the company’s gross bookings. Lyft Pink remains a fraction of that scale. The low probability suggests traders are betting Risher won’t invite the comparison on his own. If Pink comes up tonight, it will likely be in analyst Q&A.

Reading The Board

Traders expect Risher to sell European integration, the Waymo Nashville launch, and the Holon and May Mobility AV deployments. They expect him to stay away from politics, gas prices, and the Uber One gap.

Risher has already framed 2026 as Lyft’s year of the AV. Wall Street consensus calls for revenue growth of around 12.7% year over year.

The call is at 5 p.m. ET.

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