Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is struggling to break out after testing $80,000, and Coinbase‘s (NASDAQ:COIN) David Duong says the outlook for the current quarter only remains neutral.

Why Crypto Is Stuck

The Coinbase Institutional Head of Research said on the Milk Road Show that crypto remains stuck in a "headline driven market," with traders reacting to fast-moving developments around Iran and broader geopolitical risk.

"You could get a headline at breakfast that really won't carry over at dinner time," he said.

David said Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. equities peaked near 65% in February but has eased in recent weeks. That suggests crypto may be starting to trade on its own drivers instead of simply following stocks.

Those drivers include:

  • Liquidity conditions
  • Institutional flows
  • Long-term holder behavior
  • Digital asset credit products
  • Regulatory clarity
  • Stablecoin and tokenization adoption

Duong said Coinbase's investor survey showed a split market: some investors believe crypto is already in a deep bear cycle, while others still view Bitcoin as undervalued.

He also pushed back on the idea that long-term Bitcoin holders are dumping supply.

Coinbase Institutional has not seen major selling pressure hitting exchanges, he said. Instead, long-term holders — wallets holding for more than 155 days — increased their Bitcoin balances during Q1.

On institutions, Duong said the trend remains constructive.

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock and other major financial players continue to build crypto products, from ETFs to covered-call strategies and tokenized asset infrastructure.

He said 65% of investors Coinbase surveyed in January still wanted to allocate more capital to crypto.

Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is building a stronger narrative after concerns that Layer-2 networks would drain value from the base chain.

Lower fees, AI-agent commerce and quantum-security work are helping ETH regain investor attention.

According to Duong, Ethereum previously lacked a clear investment story but now appears to be finding one.

The Bottom Line

Coinbase Institutional's Q2 stance is neutral, but not bearish.

The near-term setup could improve if Treasury spending boosts liquidity in May and financial conditions turn more favorable for risk assets.

The wildcard remains geopolitics. If headlines cool, crypto could find a bottom. If escalation hits, Bitcoin may stay trapped in its current range.

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