President Donald Trump lands in Beijing Thursday for his first state visit to China since 2017, with Polymarket traders pricing a low-drama summit despite his promise of a “big, fat hug” from Xi Jinping.

The two-day meeting covers trade, tariffs, rare earths, the Iran war, Taiwan and AI chip export controls.

Who Holds The Cards?

The Financial Times’s Gideon Rachman wrote today that Trump arrives in Beijing diplomatically weakened, with leverage on rare earths largely gone and the Strait of Hormuz still shut.

Rachman’s call is that Beijing throws Trump a face-saver in the form of “Boeings and beans”: large-ticket purchases of US aircraft and soybeans designed to look like a win without conceding ground on tariffs, Taiwan or technology export controls.

Brookings analyst Patricia Kim has said Beijing believes its leverage over Washington will only grow heading into the November midterm elections.

The smaller delegation reflects the changed dynamic. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) CEO Tim Cook and Boeing (NYSE:BA) CEO Kelly Ortberg are among the dozen or so reportedly invited, half the size of Trump’s 2017 entourage.

The Boeings And Beans Trade

Boeing has a lot riding on the trip. CEO Kelly Ortberg is reportedly counting on the visit to unlock a 500-aircraft Chinese order that CNBC has called “100% dependent” on Thursday’s outcome.

Soybeans are also on the table. A recent Council on Foreign Relations analysis said Beijing “is probably willing to buy Boeing aircraft and American soybeans for stability,” aimed at Trump’s farm-state base ahead of November’s midterms.

Nvidia watchers might be interested in any movement on AI chip export rules, with Huang on the trip. The company’s China sales have effectively dropped to zero under current US restrictions.

What Polymarket Is Pricing

Polymarket traders give Trump a 99% chance of visiting China by the end of June.

Kalshi has a market on who will join Trump’s China trip. Tim Cook, Elon Musk, and Larry Fink are all at 90% or above.

A new Polymarket titled ‘Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?’ has too low liquidity to provide any pricing information, but the options give a read on how people are thinking about the trip.

The four options are Tariff Reduction, Taiwan Arms Sales Halt, AI Export Restrictions Relief and New Sanctions.

A separate Polymarket contract on a US-Iran peace deal before Trump’s visit has over $700,000 traded and is currently at 2%.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said Iran will be on the agenda Thursday.

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