Will US Government Confirm Existence Of Aliens? Polymarket Bettors Don't Think So Even As Declassified Files Drop

Prediction markets are having a moment right now, with bettors placing wagers on just about anything, even something as wild as the existence of aliens.

Heavily Wagered Bet

Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently assigns a 19% chance that the U.S. government will confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life before the end of the year. The odds at the beginning of the year were 7%.

More than $37 million has been wagered on the outcome. The market resolves to “Yes” if the president, any member of the U.S. Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff or any U.S. federal agency “definitively states” that extraterrestrial life or technology exists.

Declassified Government Files Released

Interestingly, the Pentagon released its first batch of declassified files last week, headlined by a 2023 incident in which seven federal officers separately reported seeing "orbs launching orbs" across multiple western states.

The officers reported the sightings over two days in 2023. They described orange orbs releasing smaller red ones, a large, hovering, glowing sphere, and an object resembling a "translucent kite."

The New York Times was not convinced, calling the initial release "murky images that show what could be anything." 

Former presidents have shown interest in UFO transparency. Bill Clinton once admitted to dispatching federal agents to investigate whether aliens were being hidden at Nevada's Area 51.

Barack Obama added weight to these theories earlier this year when he said in a podcast that aliens are “real,” but he hasn't seen them.

In fact, this incident likely triggered President Donald Trump to direct the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files on extraterrestrials.