Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is approaching its closely-watched 200-day moving average, a level that has historically acted as major resistance during prior bear markets.

Historically Similar Pattern

In a podcast on May 11, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen compared the current setup to both the 2018 and 2019 cycles.

In 2018, Bitcoin formed a February low, a higher low in April, then rallied into the 200-day moving average before rolling over later in the year.

The current structure looks strikingly similar, with Bitcoin bottoming near $60,000 before forming a higher low around $64,000-$65,000.

The key debate now is whether Bitcoin follows the 2018 path, where the rally failed, or the 2019 scenario, where price briefly reclaimed the 200-day moving average before eventually reversing lower again.

The analyst noted that even in bullish exceptions like 2014 and 2019, Bitcoin's move above the 200-day moving average was short-lived before weakness returned.

He also pointed to monthly Heikin Ashi candles, arguing prior bear markets often stayed red until the broader downtrend fully ended.

Why It Matters

The 200-day moving average remains one of Bitcoin's most important long-term trend indicators.

A rejection at this level could reinforce comparisons to previous bear market rallies.

Traders are watching whether Bitcoin can sustain momentum above resistance or begins showing weakness later this year.

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