Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, on Tuesday said Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) looks cheap and could hit $160,000 just to catch up with where equities already are based on current Buffett Indicator levels.

The 35x Bitcoin-To-Gold Ratio

Sigel wrote on X that if Bitcoin regains the 35x BTC/XAU cross implied by current levels of the Buffett Indicator, the price target sits at $160,000. 

Bitcoin currently trades near $81,000 while gold prices hover around record highs, leaving the current Bitcoin-to-gold ratio at roughly 17x.

A chart shared by Sigel compared the BTC/XAU ratio against the Buffett Indicator, which measures the total value of the US stock market relative to GDP. 

It showed a widening divergence through 2025 and 2026, as equities climbed to 230% of GDP while Bitcoin lagged.

Sigel argued that the ratio remains well below historical levels seen during periods when US equities traded at elevated valuations relative to gross domestic product.

VanEck’s $1 Million Base Case Still Stands

The $160,000 call follows Sigel’s earlier projection that Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years, driven by demographic trends and young investors’ intentions to allocate to Bitcoin.

“When you look at the demographic trends, it’s going to be like the video game industry,” Sigel explained on CNBC’s Halftime Report. 

“Thirty years ago it was kids playing video games. Now Elon Musk plays video games. People don’t quit. They also don’t quit Bitcoin,” he added.

Sigel pointed to the first central bank buying Bitcoin for reserves as evidence the megatrend is accelerating.

Short Covering Rally Still Has Room

Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq reached a five-year high, making recent gains largely a macro move. 

Sigel noted that derivatives markets aren’t showing froth yet, with options and futures data suggesting this remains a short covering rally with negative positioning.

“To us, it still looks like positioning is negative,” Sigel stated. “So we’re feeling pretty constructive.”

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