Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong posted a video from Capitol Hill this morning urging lawmakers to pass the CLARITY Act, 24 hours before the bill’s first full committee vote.

Polymarket traders are not matching his confidence.

The contract on the bill becoming law in 2026 has slipped from 75% in early May to 59%, even as Armstrong has lobbied for passage and the White House targets a July 4 signature.

Why The Odds Have Fallen

The slide tracks pressure from two directions.

On May 8, six banking trade groups including the American Bankers Association and the Bank Policy Institute sent a letter to Senate Banking leaders calling for “technical refinements” to the Tillis-Alsobrooks stablecoin compromise that brought Coinbase back to the table, warning that the language as drafted could allow interest-like yield through loopholes.

The Senate Banking panel splits 13 Republicans to 11 Democrats, and all 13 Republicans are needed to advance the bill.

Republican Senator John Kennedy (R-Miss.) is withholding his support over a stalled Senate housing bill, according to Punchbowl News.

To replace his vote, Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) would need a Democrat to cross over, which is unlikely without ethics language restricting senior officials from profiting from crypto.

The White House has said it will not accept a bill that singles out President Donald Trump.

From Killing The Bill To Lobbying For It

Armstrong pulled Coinbase’s support in January, telling the industry he would rather have “no bill than a bad bill” over concerns about stablecoin yield restrictions and DeFi regulation.

The breakthrough came on May 1, when Senators Thom Tillis (R-SC) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MY) reached a bipartisan compromise that bans passive yield on stablecoins but permits activity-based rewards.

Coinbase came back to the table, and Armstrong is now on Capitol Hill in the final hours before the markup.

The Ticker Stakes

Citi analysts have tied their $143,000 base-case Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) target this year to CLARITY Act passage, projecting an additional $15 billion in net ETF inflows once the bill clears Congress.

Coinbase stablecoin revenue hit $1.35 billion in 2025, roughly 19% of total revenue.

Circle Internet Group Inc (NYSE:CRCL) crashed in March after a leaked CLARITY Act draft proposed banning passive yield on stablecoin balances, a move traders may see repeated if Thursday’s vote stalls.

Congress heads into Memorial Day recess on May 21. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) has warned that missing this window could push the bill to 2030.

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