Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is battling the 200-day moving average at $82,400, the same resistance level that capped bear market rallies in 2014, 2018, and 2022 before major crashes.

200-Day MA: The Line Between $95,000 And $70,000

Analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin rallied 37% from $60,000 in February to $82,000, mirroring the 2022 bear market when a 43% rally stalled at the identical technical level between March and May.

“We have had a really good rally since the lows of February, but still what I’m telling here is that it’s a bear market rally,” Cowen stated. 

“We actually hit that resistance which is really a key resistance during bear markets,” he added.

However, Bitcoin has breached the 200-day MA in prior bear markets. In 2014 and 2019, Bitcoin pushed above the level briefly before eventually rolling over.

Fibonacci 0.382 Level Points To $85,000

If Bitcoin breaks the 200-day MA, the next resistance sits at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement around $85,000. 

In 2014, 2018, and 2022, bear market rallies consistently stalled at this exact Fibonacci level before reversing.

Cowen explained that Bitcoin rallied to the 0.382 retracement in June 2014, staying above the 200-day MA for about a month before crashing. 

The same pattern played out in 2019 when Bitcoin pushed even higher to the 0.5 Fibonacci level near $95,000 before collapsing.

“In 2014, it did get through and then it found resistance at that 0.382 level approximately, right around 85K,” Cowen noted.

June Historically Marks Major Turning Points

June has marked critical reversals for Bitcoin historically. When Bitcoin rallies into June, it tends to form a high like in 2014 and 2019. 

When Bitcoin crashes into June, it tends to form a low like in 2018 and 2022.

“If Bitcoin doesn’t start going down soon, then you sort of defer to the idea of it going up into that month, marking the high and then you roll over,” Cowen explained.

The analyst expects any potential high in early June would lead to a crash into Q4 2026, mirroring the 2014 pattern when Bitcoin topped in June and bottomed in October.

Monthly Heikin Ashi Candles Flash Warning

Bitcoin’s monthly Heikin Ashi candles briefly turned green in 2014 and 2019 before both bear markets resumed. 

In 2018 and 2022, the candles stayed red throughout the entire bear market.

If this month closes green, it draws more comparisons to 2014 and 2019 when brief rallies above the 200-day MA preceded major crashes.

Bitcoin is trading at $82,000, pressing against the 200-day MA with the next two weeks determining whether it breaks to $85,000-$95,000 or crashes back to $70,000.

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