Gold has surrendered most of its 2026 gains, yet it remains one of the most debated asset classes.

For veteran strategist Jeffrey Currie, a former head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, things will get worse before they ultimately get far, far better.  He sees the metal initially tumble to $4,000 an ounce before rising to $10,000.

In a thread on X, Currie has admitted he has been "short gold" since March despite describing himself as a "gold perma bull." As volatility in the precious metals market picked up, gold slid below $4,500 amid war-related inflation fears, triggering heavy selling pressure.

Forced Selling Pressure

Currie argues that the near-term weakness in gold is directly tied to the structural fallout from the Middle East conflict and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Surging energy prices are forcing some central banks to liquidate gold reserves to defend local currencies and finance energy imports.

"When the marginal central bank flips from structural buyer to forced seller to pay for energy, gold's biggest bid disappears," Currie wrote.

Turkey is one example of that dynamic. According to Currie, the Turkish central bank sold roughly 120 tons of gold to defend the lira and cover soaring energy costs. That selling pressure is why he believes gold could retrace all the way toward $4,000.

Still, Currie does not expect a total collapse. He suggested a $3,750-$4,000 range would likely attract major sovereign buyers, particularly China, limiting further downside. "China would probably step in," he noted when discussing deeper pullback risks.

However, once the energy shock begins damaging global growth, Currie expects central banks to pivot back toward easier monetary policy.

"Once central banks turn dovish after the energy crisis hits growth, the trade resets and I'm back long," he said. That shift, in his view, sets the stage for gold's eventual march toward $10,000.

Most Asymmetric Trade In History

Currie's gold call sits inside a much larger commodity supercycle thesis. He argues investors have poured capital into artificial intelligence while neglecting the physical infrastructure needed to power it.

"Capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run," he noted, adding that those hard assets "have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade."

The imbalance is striking. Information Technology and Communications now make up roughly 43% of the S&P 500, while Energy and Materials account for only about 6%. Meanwhile, the Magnificent 7 plus Oracle are projected to spend roughly $820 billion on capex in 2026 alone.

For Currie, that spending is "the largest physical commodity bid ever assembled inside eight income statements." He believes tech giants have effectively become "the largest unhedged molecule short ever underwritten by an equity market."

At the same time, commodity supply remains deeply constrained. Upstream oil and gas investment has fallen 35% from 2015 highs, while the world's top 20 miners are spending 40% less than during the 2012 peak cycle.

Currie says the market is shifting from the old "HAGO" era — Hard Assets, Global Operations — into a new "HALO" regime: Hard Assets, Local Operations.

"The price will overshoot first. The capex will follow," Currie wrote. "Then the new supply," he explained.

Price Watch: SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) is up 3.32% year-to-date.

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