Cryptocurrency punters pushed odds of the U.S. launching a military campaign against Cuba to nearly 50% amid rising tensions with the island nation.
Aerial Strike Likely?
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket assigned 49% probability to the U.S. initiating a drone, missile, or air strike on Cuba before the year-end, up from 15% over the month and 5% over the week.
The market has attracted significant attention, with $4.34 million already wagered on the outcome as of this writing.
Actions limited to artillery fire, small arms engagements, ground incursions, naval shelling or cyberattacks will not qualify for resolution.
Meanwhile, bettors are pricing in a 25% chance that the U.S. will launch a military offensive to seize control of any part of Cuban territory before Dec. 31.
Tension Brewing In The Caribbean
The odds come as the U.S. deployed aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and its strike group in the Caribbean, sparking fears of potential military confrontation.
Cuba reportedly acquired more than 300 military drones and discussed potential attacks on the U.S. base at Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, U.S. military vessels, and possibly Key West.
President Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday that Cuba remains “on our mind,” but rejected the need for escalation, adding, “I don’t think there needs to be,” when asked about possible further action.
Notably, the Justice Department unsealed murder charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes operated by the exile group Brothers to the Rescue.
Image via Shutterstock/ noamgalai
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