Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 17e posted strong early demand in Japan but lost momentum after the first few weeks, with cumulative sales trailing the prior-generation iPhone 16e, according to a new report from Counterpoint Research.

Counterpoint's Japan Weekly Smartphone Tracker showed cumulative iPhone 17e sales reached 1.17 million units during the first seven weeks after launch, down 9.8% from the iPhone 16e over the same period.

Early Sales Beat Expectations

The report said the iPhone 17e outperformed its predecessor during the first two weeks following launch, reflecting stronger-than-expected initial demand. However, sales volumes fell behind the iPhone 16e starting in week four.

Counterpoint said the slowdown does not necessarily indicate weaker product competitiveness. Instead, the research firm attributed the softer trend to a difficult comparison against the iPhone 16e, which benefited from unusually strong replacement demand.

"While this may appear to signal weakening performance, it is more accurately attributed to the high base effect created by the 16e rather than any deterioration in product competitiveness," the report said.

Apple iPhone 16e Benefited From Replacement Cycle

Counterpoint described the iPhone 16e as a "demand-clearing" model in Japan because it attracted a large wave of upgrades from older iPhone SE users, particularly owners of the 2020 and 2022 models.

The report added that the iPhone 16e also gained traction as the most affordable entry point into Apple Intelligence, helping accelerate replacement demand in a short period.

Because the iPhone 17e launched only one year later, fewer users were due for an upgrade cycle, limiting repeat demand.

Counterpoint said replacement demand in Japan could gradually recover around 2027, supported by the country's widespread two-year trade-in programs.

Earnings & Analyst Outlook

Looking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the July 30, 2026 (estimated) earnings report.

  • EPS Estimate: $1.89 (Up from $1.57 YoY)
  • Revenue Estimate: $108.95 Billion (Up from $94.04 Billion YoY)
  • Valuation: P/E of 37.4x (Indicates premium valuation relative to peers)

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $318.62. Recent analyst moves include:

  • Tigress Financial: Strong Buy (Raises forecast to $375.00) (May 14)
  • Evercore ISI Group: Outperform (Raises forecast to $365.00) (May 14)
  • Wedbush: Outperform (Raises forecast to $400.00) (May 8)

Apple Price Action

AAPL Price Action: Apple shares were up 0.44% at $310.18 during premarket trading on Tuesday. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $311.39, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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