Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ:GLXY) CEO Mike Novogratz says the wave of mega-IPOs heading to market this year could be the symbolic top that ends the bull run, and he thinks the right way to play it is buying puts rather than shorting outright.

Speaking on his “All Things Markets” podcast over the weekend, Novogratz argued that great bubbles tend to end with a single defining event.

He pointed to the AOL-Time Warner merger capping the dot-com era and the Hong Kong handover marking the peak of the 1997 Asia boom.

The Holy Trinity Of IPOs

This time, Novogratz said, the signal could be the trio of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic going public, which together may represent around $4 trillion in market cap and require up to $150 billion in fresh money.

“If we look back and SpaceX was the high, it won’t surprise anybody,” Novogratz said. “That’s how markets end.”

The supply shock is more than psychological. To absorb up to $150 billion in new stock, institutions would likely have to sell their current winners to free up cash, draining liquidity out of the names that have been leading the rally.

Polymarket traders price a June debut at roughly 95%, while traders assign a 71% chance the company lands in the $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion valuation bucket, a level that would make it the biggest IPO ever.

Novogratz laid out a bull case that could push the market even higher. If the Middle East conflict cools by Labor Day, he said, oil could fall into the $60s, giving policymakers the cover they need to cut rates. He called those cuts the “last juice” that could send stocks ripping into year-end.

Buy Puts, Don’t Short

Novogratz cautioned against betting against the rally directly, warning that a market this strong can “rip your face off.” Instead, he said investors who think the top is near should buy puts and give themselves enough time for the thesis to play out.

Novogratz pointed to the trader he calls “King Leopold” as the playbook, though he wrongly said the manager left Anthropic. He likely meant Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 25-year-old pushed out of OpenAI who later launched Situational Awareness LP, whose latest 13F disclosed roughly $8.46 billion in put exposure across the chip complex, including a large position against Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).

A Polymarket contract tracking whether the AI bubble bursts by the end of 2026 prices the odds at 22%, with more than $2 million wagered, though its resolution criteria require a genuine industry-wide crash rather than a single disappointing listing.

Nvidia remains the anchor of the whole trade. Novogratz noted the chipmaker’s demand still cannot keep up with supply, even as thinning market breadth flashes the kind of warning sign that has historically preceded major tops.

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