Something extremely rare is about to happen to the S&P 500.
The benchmark index — as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) — is on track to mark its ninth straight winning week on Friday, a streak matched only 10 times since 1945.
The run has lifted the index 18.76% off its late-March lows, erasing the selloff that followed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February.
Buying at record highs after nine green weeks feels like chasing. The historical data says waiting is the costlier instinct.
S&P 500 Logs 9 Green Weeks: The Last 10 Times, Stocks Kept Climbing
In the 10 completed episodes, the index was higher one month later 90% of the time, with an average gain of 1.68%, TradingView data shows.
Three months out, the win rate slipped to 60% and the average gain to 3.01%.
Six months out, it was 70% and 6.04%. A full year later, the index was higher in eight of ten cases — an 80% win rate — with an average return of 10.21%. The median twelve-month return was 12.88%.
S&P 500’s Forward Return Analysis After 9 Straight Week of Gains (1945-2026)
| Streak End | 9-week move (%) | Forward Return: 1 Mo (%) | 3 Mo | 6 Mo | 12 Mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1957-05-13 | 7.04 | 0.00 | -5.60 | -13.32 | -6.96 |
| 1958-10-13 | 8.34 | 2.41 | 8.82 | 12.55 | 9.91 |
| 1961-01-30 | 12.33 | 2.03 | 6.91 | 8.78 | 12.20 |
| 1963-04-29 | 9.25 | 0.54 | -1.04 | 5.43 | 15.66 |
| 1963-09-16 | 7.24 | 0.97 | 1.34 | 7.67 | 14.88 |
| 1964-01-20 | 10.77 | 0.89 | 3.42 | 8.23 | 13.55 |
| 1985-11-25 | 11.51 | 4.31 | 11.57 | 22.35 | 24.24 |
| 1989-08-28 | 11.24 | 1.43 | -1.42 | -4.47 | -8.57 |
| 2004-01-20 | 10.26 | 0.30 | -3.01 | -3.49 | 2.61 |
| 2023-12-26 | 15.85 | 3.96 | 9.11 | 16.72 | 24.58 |
| 2026-05-26 | 18.76 | – | – | – | – |
| Metric | 1 Mo | 3 Mo | 6 Mo | 12 Mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 1.68 | 3.01 | 6.04 | 10.21 |
| Median | 1.20 | 2.38 | 7.95 | 12.88 |
| Win rate | 90% | 60% | 70% | 80% |
When The Setup Worked
The strongest signals clustered around recoveries and the early innings of bull markets.
October 1958 caught the rebound from the 1957–58 recession. In January 1961, the new Kennedy administration rode in, and twin 1963 streaks healed the steep 1962 selloff. And January 1964 ran on tax cuts and a booming economy.
The best was November 1985, when disinflation and falling rates drove a 24.24% twelve-month gain.
The most recent, December 2023, looks familiar: a Federal Reserve pivot and the artificial-intelligence trade returned 24.58% over the year.
When It Didn’t
Two episodes ended badly, both inside recessions. May 1957 topped just before the 1957–58 downturn. January 2004 stalled as the Federal Reserve began hiking.
The cautionary one is August 1989. The S&P 500 had nine green weeks and sat near record highs, with investors sure the 1980s expansion would roll on.
Within a year, Iraq invaded Kuwait, crude oil prices roughly doubled to $40 a barrel, and the economy fell into recession. The index was down 8.57% twelve months later, the worst return in the sample.
Should Investors Be Scared To Buy Now?
The historical answer leans bullish: gains far more often than losses and the typical twelve-month return tops double digits.
The open question is whether this rally, born of an oil crisis, can dodge the kind of shock that ended the last streak built this high.
Image: Shutterstock
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